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Markets continue to tumble as liquidity wanes, but trillions of dollars remain in the system, preventing unrest in stocks and credit markets. Instead, major turmoil is more likely to emerge in America's sovereign bond market... 1/
After reaching levels not seen since the COVID market meltdown, Treasury market volatility has somewhat subsided. But we're not out of the woods just yet. Further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve could expose the underlying rot in the most important bond market globally...
Recently, after a succession of failed attempts, markets have made the first decent attempt to price in peak inflation. Energy commodities, gold, and even bonds have signaled disinflation, while sticky areas of the CPI (rent and wages) have shown early signs of a reversal...
This all followed the most disinflationary U.S. CPI reading since March, causing a volatile reaction. A relentless bid in Treasuries kickstarted a lengthy decline in yields from ~4.1% to just below 3.5%. Had a crisis been averted in America's sovereign debt market? Not so fast...
twitter.com/concodanomics/status/1598784800197779458?s=20&t=bnyMoDl7ypFzmIOiun5myQ
Even if the Treasury market endures the stress of the remaining rate hikes now being priced in, long-term structural defects exist deep in its plumbing. New cracks in America's sovereign bond market are beginning to materialize...
The Fed is already on call to supply unlimited liquidity to what Concoda calls the REM Industrial Complex: the Repo markets, Money-market funds, and the Eurodollar market. The Fed's tools, however, will fail to quash other looming Treasury market hazards...
For now, the primary Treasury market, where investors simply buy sovereign bonds from the U.S. government, remains functional and liquid. The world can't get enough of Treasury auctions, with a whopping ~$550 billion in net Treasury issuance expected this quarter...
The most prominent concern is that the most significant dealers in Treasuries (the Fed's primary dealers) won't be able to devour and intermediate an incoming $1-$2 trillion in Treasury issuance each year, which the U.S. government must "print" to fund its operations...
Luckily, the gap between the Treasury supply and potential buyers remains too slim for immediate concern. Plus, most of today's trading is in "on-the-run" Treasuries (a fancy term for the latest batch of govt bonds issued), while off-the-run bonds are mostly held to maturity...
And even if liquidity problems develop, quick fixes like removing Treasuries from leverage ratios like the SLR (see below) can be used by officials. Primary dealers, the major plumbers in Treasury markets, can then absorb supply and offload it to buyers in secondary markets...
twitter.com/concodanomics/status/1583269848443822080?s=20&t=nQg2z1IBfa5oLqu_Zg8ufA
It is there that more short-term threats exist, in the murky parts of the secondary Treasury market. Monetary leaders have finally begun to take notice of a system rife with structural issues, monopoly power, and, most importantly, blindspots...
On the surface, the secondary Treasury market appears to be transparent and functional. There's the "interdealer segment" where firms (mostly securities dealers and specialized trading firms) trade among themselves automatically using high-frequency trading algorithms (HFTs)...
Then, you have the tiny dealer-to-dealer segment. This market facilitates the 10% of trades that occur directly between dealers, without intermediation. Some parties want to execute large trades and not broadcast their positions to the wider market...
Finally, the most important segment is the dealer-to-client market. Participating in nearly every trade via specialized trading platforms, the Fed's primary dealers and other firms make markets for foreign central banks, hedge funds, pension funds, corporations, and more...
Under the surface, however, notable signs of decay have emerged, ever since the infamous October “Flash Rally” of 2014. Treasury yields plunged 0.4% then swiftly rebounded for no apparent reason. Over five U.S. agencies failed to diagnose an actual cause in the aftermath...
Five years later, in September 2019, rates in the repo (repurchase agreements) market soared. Since some dealers were not authorized to use the discount window, the Fed's emergency lending facility, repo rates shot above the Federal Reserve's target range after a cash shortage...
twitter.com/concodanomics/status/1572379650957115393?s=20&t=2F6dkGXOfVqFhTTXeH9-XQ
The Fed responded by creating a "temporary" Standing Repo Facility (SRF). Via primary dealers and the tri-party repo platform (see below), the Fed offered the market cash loans at an optimal rate. After realizing it patched a hole in the system, the Fed made the SRF permanent..
Then, in 2020, COVID-19 caused an epic market meltdown. Panic spread so widely that some investors couldn't sell Treasuries to raise U.S. dollars. Spreads blew out, and Concoda's "illiquidity spiral" was displayed in full force. The Fed soon had to step in...
h/t @TheBondFreak
Soon after, COVID fears died down. Monetary leaders and policymakers finally woke up to the underlying deterioration in the secondary Treasury market. They began to try to fix its weaknesses, but this was easier said than done. Still now, an abundance of challenges awaits them...
Regulations like the aforementioned Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), which have been designed to prevent a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis, can only do so much against new threats. These rules have quashed old hazards but created new ones and additional constraints...
Basel III and Dodd-Frank caused the major players (primary dealers and other large financial institutions) to pull back from market-making in Treasuries. JPMorgan even closed its tri-party repo business because of regulatory costs. Today, new entities have taken market share...
twitter.com/Resnick_PI/status/765576106435018752?s=20&t=n4eYXSYHdXidSvjbXDstlA
Slowly over time, unknown to most outside observers and even some policymakers, a new group of traders has emerged behind the scenes: principal trading firms (PTFs). Their existence shows we have remained in the golden age of monetary alchemy...
PTFs, firms that trade using automated HFT strategies on state-of-the-art electronic platforms, have contested the big bank's reign as the top market makers of Treasuries. Not constrained by strict rules applied to GSIBs (global systemically important banks), PTFs have thrived...
They have joined other dealers who serve as the plumbing of the global financial system. Without them, we'd be sent back to the stone age. By profiting from spreads while trading Treasuries, MBS, and other securities, these monetary plumbers create the most liquidity worldwide...
These firms, though, are also slowly turning the money markets into an increasingly opaque system. So much so that power structures are bound to take notice eventually. Large parts of the financial system are still covert and hidden...
Opaque markets decrease competition and increase costs, creating not only inequality but illiquidity. Opacity also allows big players to exploit smaller ones easily through monopolies on information. The post-GFC changes show us that a more transparent system fixes this...
After "opacity" was blamed for AIG blowing up the CDS market in 2008, the DTCC (the post-trade processor of OTC derivatives) started publishing weekly data. Soon after, liquidity and competitiveness soared. Officials will look to repeat a similar process for Treasury dark spots..
With a push for transparency, the Treasury market is about to transform. Monopolies do exist in these waters, and big players will likely not give up their thrones without a fight. A battle for control will brew between dealers with a monopoly on market info and regulators...
Even so, the regulators will likely win. And according to the consensus among commentators, academics, and monetary leaders, the plan is to combine the three Treasury market segments into one, turning it from an opaque, over-the-counter (OTC) market to an "all-to-all" behemoth...
"All-to-all" is a form of trading that seeks to enable any participant in a market to trade with any other party. This structure is the standard for stock, options, and futures exchanges...
Transforming the secondary Treasury market into an all-to-all model, however, is a huge task. Authorities are asking private entities to reveal any dodgy dealings or unfair market practices they could be engaging in. But for regulators, the risks are too large to watch on idly...
It's become clear that authorities have an incomplete view of what's happening deep in the monetary plumbing. In the "uncleared bilateral" repo market, where trillions of dollars in bonds are pledged for cash to facilitate short-term loans, there's limited oversight...
Uncleared bilateral repo (UBR), is one of the most elusive (and exotic) money markets. The name sounds like confusing jargon, but it's the simple act of swapping securities for cash overnight for a fee, doing so anonymously by not using a central counterparty or custodian...
With around $2 TRILLION in outstanding UBR agreements, the potential risks remain hidden. UBR trades take place over the phone or through electronic chat, but market participants determine what information they wish to divulge on certain transactions...
The authorities don't seem to have (enough) urgency to stop trillions being traded in secrecy. After recent events, this could be a perilous decision. Systemic risk abounds when financial entities go unwatched for too long. America's Eye of Sauron looks to be preoccupied...
The reason they haven't taken prompt action is likely the same as always. Bureaucracies are slow to react to monetary threats and usually end up imposing emergency measures, some of which become conventional monetary policy!...
In February 2022, the Treasury's Office of Financial Research (OFR) did announce it would pursue a permanent collection of data for uncleared bilateral repo trades. The new data collection would complement data collected by regulators on cleared and tri-party repo data...
But this, even after recent events, has yet to be completed. Time is ticking. Once implemented, though, authorities will gain more oversight over dark parts of the repo market...
And they won't stop there. Concoda predicts they will try to centrally clear all trades that involve Treasury securities. Only last month, officials from five agencies vowed to change the system so the majority of trades went through CCPs — central clearing corporations...
Central clearing will become the string that forms a new web of financial transactions. As the flow of funds from a fictional dealer demonstrates below, trading through CCPs is intricate and complex. Though it provides many benefits for those who partake...
Once most participants onboard to CCPs, this will create more transparency, increase efficiency, and reduce risk. Instead of dealers taking heavy losses and sparking contagion, the CCP insures its members against the default of other members...
Each participant in the clearing process must deposit "clearing collateral" and also contribute a specified amount to the CCP's "default fund". This allows the CCP to offer three layers of protection before "contagion" even becomes a thing...
If a member defaults on a trade, it first gives up any other pledged collateral to cover losses, followed by its contribution to the CCP's default fund. If that's still inadequate, the CCP uses its capital to settle the loss. In extreme cases, other members' funds will be used...
As you can see, the tools exist to create a more transparent, open, and safer American sovereign bond market. Monetary leaders will eventually need to act, and perhaps somewhat quickly. But judging by history that won't happen...
They're aware but unhurried. The Treasury Market Practices Group (TPMG) not only admitted that the clearing and settlement process is "fragmented", but capital flows may not be understood by some participants who "lack a clear and comprehensive view of market functioning"...
It's hard for any human to find an optimal solution to the problems that leaders face with the Treasury market, let alone the global financial system. It's grown so complex, with endless moving parts and incentive structures, finding a true "fix" has grown impossible...
But after 2008, a subprime-style house of cards must be prevented from arising deep in the financial plumbing. Efforts to improve Treasury markets and its transparency to identify dangers have begun from both state agencies and the private sector...
Failing to identify a serious hazard in the Treasury market before it's too late will cause a further tumble in the public's already fragile confidence in policymakers and institutions. This time, there's no room for error...
Thanks for reading!
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