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After decades of enabling runaway speculation, Chinese leaders have deflated a once-giant shadow banking system without widespread turmoil. But as the global economy begins to stall, China’s elite may encounter a resurgence of monetary alchemy in the shadows... 1/
On the 15th of September, 2008, Lehman Brothers collapsed, revealing the most intricate network of financial instruments ever assembled. Decades of hidden experimentation in America’s banking golden age had risen to the surface. The U.S. shadow banking system was unveiled...
The reaction to this shadow network’s unveiling was one of amazement and disbelief, but it was the peak of a transition to a new type of finance, one that had been evolving since the 1970s...
In complete contrast to the traditional banking textbooks, “market-based finance” — the intermediation of private credit outside the traditional system — had not only emerged but supplanted the original banking standard...
The subprime boom and bust was merely the byproduct of market-based finance’s first modern iteration, and as usual with nascent monetary experiments, it ended in disaster...
But unlike the origins of market-based finance, where private entities created "deposit-like" instruments (such as repos and money market funds) to evade regulators, the origins of America’s shadow banking standard lay within government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs)...
The FHLB (Federal Home Loan Bank) System, dubbed the second-to-last lender of last resort, was the foremost provider of “loan warehousing” — extending credit to those engaging in the securitization of mortgages...
twitter.com/not_concoda/status/1718917314991579152?s=20
Meanwhile, akin to big banks providing “backstops” to shadow entities engaging in fishy activities, the housing GSEs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) supplied the first forms of “credit risk transfer,” much like CDS (credit default swaps) and CDOs (collateralized debt obligations)...
These government-sponsored entities even founded the “originate-to-distribute” model, where lenders made loans for the sole purpose of selling them on to other investors...
In an even more bizarre dynamic, the infamous rise of CDOs was prompted by the first draft of the Basel Framework, the regulatory banking standard active in practically every major nation...
twitter.com/not_concoda/status/1698225163391701128?s=20
Following the late-1980s banking crises, monetary authorities enforced Basel I’s minimum capital requirements on banks, aiming to curb "credit risk": the probability of loss from counterparties defaulting on loans. Yet Wall Street found a way to game the system...
By pooling mortgages into securities and “reducing risk” via CDO and CDS products, banks required less capital than traditional lending to achieve the same returns. CDOs, securities that pay interest from another pool of securities, were deemed to be “credit risk transfers”...
Still, the pieces (or tranches) that made up these products failed to reduce risk, merely distributing it among different (but, more importantly, interconnected) shadow market participants...
At the height of the subprime boom, some dealers even issued “CDO-cubeds,” the riskiest protection repackaged into fresh securities to retain the highest rating. The rest, as the world soon discovered, was history...
twitter.com/not_concoda/status/1718921702120243378
Out of the ashes of what was then the greatest speculative bust on record arose a highly efficient shadow banking machine. After Lehman’s bankruptcy, the toxic markets of the subprime era dried up, leaving only the elements vital for channeling credit into the real economy...
The securitized loans, leases, and mortgages packaged into tradable instruments have never been allowed to reach “CDO-cubed levels” of toxicity ever again. After another two drafts of the Basel Framework, regulators have contained extreme financial creativity, for now...
Meanwhile, across the globe, as America’s shadow banking sector had reached excessive levels of speculation and fallen back to Earth, another shadow system had achieved its peak and gradual downfall: the Chinese shadow banking sector...
twitter.com/not_concoda/status/1719099516790411654?s=20
The backstory of how China’s shadow sector emerged is rather different from America’s. Up until the late 1970s, China operated a Soviet-style monetary system in which the central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), was the sole bank in operation...
Shortly after the U.S. integrated China into its global security pact, however, the Chinese elite moved away from an inflexible approach, founding “The Big Four” commercial banks...
Pro-market reforms soon followed, bringing China’s private sector to life. The Big Four banks grew more profit-oriented, at one point becoming the four largest banks globally by total assets. The shift to a capitalist banking system with socialist characteristics was in motion...
Alongside the Big Four, other smaller banks emerged. Joint-stock commercial banks (JSCBs) started appearing nationwide, with hundreds operating in certain locations...
Over time, smaller banks started to swipe business away from the Big Four. In 1995, these large state-owned behemoths held 80% of all bank deposits, but a decade later, they held 60%, and their share has kept on declining ever since...
As the new millennium arrived, with it came the rise of China’s shadow banking sector. A great game of shadow finance "cat and mouse” between banks and Chinese regulators was about to commence...
In response to a rapid expansion of lending, Chinese authorities began tightening bank liquidity. By prohibiting banks from issuing more loans equal to 75% of their deposits, small banks could no longer extend credit to what was a large number of customers seeking funding...
At the same time, the Big Four tended to discriminate against private firms, favoring loans to large state-owned enterprises. Consequently, small banks were forced to invent a range of “shadow instruments” to provide funding to credit-starved entities...
The Chinese shadow banks were ingenious. Unlike the American way of combining potentially ten or more stages of intermediation to reach the final product, shadow banking in China grew to be less complex, involving fewer steps and fewer intermediaries...
twitter.com/not_concoda/status/1719099516790411654?s=20
The prominent scheme involved funneling money to customers by redefining bank deposits as “financial products” and bank assets as “investment receivables”...
The shadow arms of banks offered a range of “deposit-like” services, such as “wealth management products” (WMPs), while extending credit via “entrusted loans,” “trust loans,” and “shadow bonds”. The list of financial products — and synonyms — grew each year...
During the heydays of China’s shadow banking boom, countless financial products were circulating freely in the darkness. But eventually, in 2016, the music started to slow...
Upon the collapse of a shadow peer-to-peer lending bubble, regulators’ temper had reached boiling point. China's regulatory establishment imposed a series of penalties on the most popular shadow products, constraining rampant lending...
After Chinese shadow bank activity reached a whopping 90% share of nominal GDP in 2016, that figure — according to Moody’s — had fallen to ~39% in Q2 of 2023...
Today, amidst tough regulatory supervision, shadow assets are forecasted to decline further. China’s banking regulator, the CRBC, is looking to fully integrate banks into a stricter version of Basel III, while implementing a new tier system to monitor systemic risk...
Nevertheless, as the economy begins to deteriorate and financial conditions tighten, the supply of credit to certain entities could narrow enough to force shadow banks to reignite their creativity...
Even in the face of heavy regulatory penalties, another round of shadow banking “cat and mouse” could be just around the corner. And judging by financial history, it shouldn’t be surprising.
Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this, feel free to retweet the top tweet of this thread and follow @concodanomics for more...
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