Highlights from International Energy Agency's (IEA) 2024 Renewables report.
iea.org/news/massive-global-growth-of-renewables-to-2030-is-set-to-match-entire-power-capacity-of-major-economies-today-moving-world-closer-to-tripling-goal
Global distributed solar PV additions (inc. residential, commercial and industrial) grew over 60% in 2023, mostly owing to acceleration in China and Europe.
China’s record was truly exceptional, accounting on its own for 2/3
of global annual additions. In 2023, the country’s solar PV additions grew
2.5x and wind installations more than 2x.
US registered 2nd-largest increase, nearly 2x utility PV installations from 2022 to 2023.
Rapid utility-scale wind, solar PV growth has increased grid integration challenges.
In Q1 2024, China's curtailment rates for variable renewable energy generation, increased, although they remained below 3% for both technologies.
Global renewable capacity additions rise to ~935 GW in 2030. Solar PV, wind are account for 95% of all capacity additions through 2030 b/c generation costs are lower than for both fossil and non-fossil alternatives in most countries, and policies continue to support them.
Electricity continues to make up only a small share of total, with global
consumption accounting for 23% in 2030, up just 4 percentage points from 2023.
Over 2024-2030, China is expected to install 3,207 GW of new renewable
electricity capacity, more than tripling growth of 2017-2023.
Since 2015, China’s share in global annual capacity additions has been increasing and is expected to reach almost 60% in 2030.
EU remains the 2nd-largest growth market, with annual additions continuing to increase through 2030.
US 2x over 2024-2030, driven by govt subsidies.
India increases more quickly than any other major economy.
Africa underperforms considering its potential, electrification needs
In the electricity sector, the renewable energy share is forecast to expand from 30% in 2023 to 46% in 2030. Solar and wind make up almost all this growth.
In 2030, variable renewables account for 2/3 of global renewable electricity generation (from less than 45% today). Over the forecast period, the share of solar PV in meeting global power demand 3x while wind almost 2x and the role of hydropower becomes less prominent.
China = 2x renewables by 2030. Wind, solar PV costs on par with or just below coal-fired generation depending on provinces.
Europe, US will account for ~30% of global renewable power generation in 2030, followed by Brazil, India (5 % each). India’s share more than doubles,
In US, Europe, China, renewable electricity makes up most new renewable transport demand, as EV stocks expand, powered by growing shares of renewable electricity.
Current renewable energy demand forecasts for the road, marine and aviation subsectors fall short of the IEA Net Zero by 2050 Scenario trajectory. Among these, road transport is the closest to meeting the scenario’s targets.
Heat pumps continue to gain ground over fossil fuel boilers in Europe.
Lower 2023 sales in US, Europe, Japan only partly offset by 12% growth in China (the largest market).
Industrial heat consumption is projected to grow 17% (+20 EJ) by 2030, with China and India accounting for over 50% of the increase. Renewable heat will represent less than half of this growth, with its share in industrial heat supply slowly increasing to 16%.
Accelerated case assumes govts address key policy, grid integration, financing, permitting challenges in short term to unlock ~20% more capacity compared with the main case, enabling an ~3x global renewable capacity by 2030.
Main-case: 69 of 150 countries reach or surpass existing policy goals for renewable capacity; these countries hold almost 80% of cumulative capacity today.
Most countries expected to fall short of ambitions, but they account for only 15% of our forecast.
China's wind, solar PV developers being offered 15-20 year power purchase contracts at set prices, defined mostly by existing coal-fired
generation.
Since discontinuation of feed-in-tariff policy in 2020, China’s solar
PV capacity additions nearly tripled to 261 GW in 2023.
US forecast to add nearly 500 GW of renewables capacity
over 2024-2030, almost all in solar PV, wind installations.
IRA is continuing to drive expansion, inc. (along with state- and utility-level incentives) distributed solar PV growth.
Distributed solar PV leads European growth and is set to become the technology with the most installed renewable capacity by 2026 surpassing hydropower and onshore wind.
Policy drivers underpin this expansion.
Renewable energy capacity in Asia Pacific (excluding China) is expected to
expand more than 680 GW in 2024-2030, doubling 2017-2023 growth.
Total installed renewable capacity in the region increases by a factor of 2.2,
Latin America will add over 190 GW of renewable capacity, led by solar PV (72%) wind power (19%) and hydropower (5%).
5 countries = 92% of additions
*Brazil (58%)
*Chile (14%)
*Mexico (10%)
*Colombia (6%)
*Argentina (4%).
Capacity triples from 53 GW in 2023 to ~150 GW in 2030.
Solar PV = 85%
Good solar resources, economies of scale, beneficial land/financing costs, the region continues to produce winning bids at the lower end of the world’s awarded bid range.
~90 GW of new Sub-Saharan Africa's renewable capacity 2024 to 2030 (2.5x increase).
*South Africa = 40% of region’s new capacity
Outside of South Africa, hydropower makes up the majority of total additions:
*Ethiopia (7.3 GW)
*Tanzania (3.3 GW)
*Angola (2.6 GW)
Renewable energy technologies increasingly cost-competitive, but
policies remain key.
84% of global renewable utility-scale capacity growth in 2024-2030 is
expected to be stimulated by policy schemes, a share similar to last year’s
forecast.