🧵 re my issues with this @globeandmail story by @EmmaLGraney.
The story cries out for context.
Context significantly changes our view of #oilsands approach to GHG reductions.
@s_guilbeault @JonathanWNV @ABDanielleSmith @BrianJeanAB @rebeccakschulz
theglobeandmail.com/business/article-oil-sands-cant-meet-federal-emissions-targets-without-production-cuts/
2/Eye-opening interview: oil sands producers only want to reduce emissions when it's profitable for them to do so.
Dan Wicklum was COSIA CEO for 7.5 years.
He worked closely with sr. oil sands execs on issues like GHGs.
#OOTT #ABleg #ABpoli
youtu.be/7DBSScmLWu0
3/There are many examples to back up Wicklum's argument.
@kevinbirn of @SPGlobal explains how phasing out Suncor's Base Mine coke boiler both lowers emissions AND costs by using energy to create steam more efficiently.
youtu.be/Mp-bSV0ntB4
4/Wicklum references a CNRL exec who says that if emissions reduction is a net cost to the company, it won't invest capital to do so.
Should this be acceptable to policymakers?
Should producers get a pass on climate targets if meeting them costs money?
5/Birn explains S&P forecast for 500,000 b/d oil sands production increase by 2030.
Should producers get to grow emissions because they want to grow supply?
youtu.be/HAcVWaeqq6M
6/ G&M says oil sands GHG reductions will only be 15 Mt/yr by 2030?
Not that long ago, the Pathways Alliance estimated it could reduce emissions 22 Mt/yr by 2030.
What happened?
Pathways Alliance strategy from @CanadianNatural's latest investor presentation.
7/Suncor is reducing 2030 emissions by 10 Mt/yr (from 29 Mt/yr to 19 Mt/yr).
Suncor's latest climate report says that 14 Mt/yr by 2030 may be possible.
No other oil sands company has plans to lower emissions.
Why is that?
If one producer can do it, why not all of them?
8/@Pembina's chart suggests that the other producers aren't trying all that hard, which supports Wicklum's argument.
9/Here's CNRL in 2018 introducing IPEP mining tech.
energi.media/markham-on-energy/revolutionary-new-oil-sands-mining-process-eliminates-tailings-ponds-lowers-emissions-by-40-cuts-costs/
10/Here's CNRL in 2023 claiming that IPEP can reduce emissions by 40%.
Oh, and the IPEP "pilot" was a success.
Then why not roll it out quicker?
And why not share it with other oil sands mining producers, as CNRL's Romero told me the company would do through @COSIA_ca?
11/More context: not all oil sands projects are created equal.
Mined SCO (synthetic crude oil), CSS (combined cyclic steam) dilbit emit far more than SAGD dilbit, mined PFT dilbit.
Shouldn't govts expect producers to clean up their dirtiest operations?
Source: S&P Global
12/Really important context: some of the dirtiest oil sands projects are also the most profitable.
Before Husky Energy was merged with Cenovus, it criticized carbon pricing that penalized its CCS production, arguing that CSS was a big contributor to ABGov royalty revenues.
13/Pembina report: “Decarbonizing Canada’s oil and gas supply: Cutting the sector’s emissions by 2030 is key to reaching net-zero by 2050.”
Sets out a pathway to hit 2030 targets.
Interview with @jangorsk, director of the oil and gas program.
youtu.be/t1_ujmIeMvk
14/Pembina's plan seems commonsensical to me.
Go hard on the easy stuff (why stop at 75% fugitive methane emission reductions by 2030?) while building the more complex stuff (like CCUS, which requires a carbon pipeline, underground storage).
15/Here's why the Graney's story is crap.
S&P's email to @EnergiMedia:
"The report cited by the Globe and Mail provides an independent analysis of potential abatement scenarios on the CDN oil sands over time. It measures possible impacts under different conditions."
16/Where is the discussion of the different abatement scenarios?
What about possible impacts? What is the lower range of those impacts?
What are the different conditions?
If G&M has the numbers, it has that information.
Why not include that in the story?
17/Context changes everything, as I've shown above, and there's plenty more where that came from.
How about some of that context instead of just reaction comments from the usual suspects?
G&M is Canada's newspaper of record. It should do better. Much better.
Markham Hislop
@politicalham
Journalist. Writes about the energy transition, tech, clean energy, politics/narrative, oil/gas. My job is to be accurate and to tell the truth. Full stop.