Creating wealth even in a bear market.
Anybody could tell you to just "buy the dip." But how do you know what to buy?
Here are the ways that enabled me to make over 150% YTD gains this year:
(+ my own portfolio: 1shot1kill)
What Will Be Covered?
1. Your Edge
2. Portfolio Allocation
3. Trading Strategy
4. Spotting Narratives
5. Resources and Tools
6. Diversification
7. Takeaways
What Is Your Edge?
Take some time to think. What are you good at?
Are you skilled at TA? Can you identify good fundamentals in a project? Perhaps you are well-versed in NFTs.
To identify this, try comparing your performance across various investments and trades.
Fundamentals and Narratives
Personally, I pride myself on my ability to spot fundamentally sound projects and to catch trends early.
For e.g, I spotted $GMX when it was in the low 20s last year, catching onto a fundamentally strong project along with the DEX narrative.
Outsourcing An Edge
I am no macro expert, so how did I get the conviction to all-in in late December?
I analysed the theses of @GCRClassic and @Crypto_Joe10, who were certain that crypto had reached a bottom.
Thus, I evaluated their thoughts to form my own course of action.
Outsourcing An Edge #2
I am a noob at NFTs. I did not even have a clue about the existence of @blur_io until @JiaHo and @NftShorts told me about it.
They are NFT specialists and taught me the best ways to farm the $BLUR airdrop even with my limited capital.
Join A Community
There is only so much information you can take in on your own. I'm lucky enough to be a part of @FungiAlpha.
Every day, we share different ideas and projects with each other. Some of us may be more well-versed in LSD projects and some in GameFi etc.
Portfolio Allocation
I have three high-conviction bets. $FXS$IMGNAI$BUGS
These are coins that I would not be selling until close to the end of the cycle.
The other portion of my portfolio is for chasing the narrative as well as other fundamentally sound projects.
Conviction
In a bear market where down swings are likely, one must have conviction in their bets; fumble too early, and massive gains are likely to be lost.
I bought $GRAIL at $215 and sold it all just before it rallied to where it is today. All because I had no conviction.
Taking Profits And Rotations
I take profits on my lower-cap bets by taking out my initials after a 2x. This allows me to maintain exposure while decreasing risk.
I rotate the profits into other projects that are gaining hype.
Overtrading
However, I made the mistake of rotating too often. This resulted in poor conviction in my trades, as I was jumping on literally anything.
Instead, I should have stuck to narratives that I had more confidence in.
Spotting Narratives
I keep a lookout for catalysts that may spark something.
A recent example would be the ban on $BUSD. This showed a clear need for decentralised stablecoins,
Hence, increasing my conviction on $FXS along with the LSD narrative catalyzed by Shanghai.
Resources And Tools
There are many threads out there that tell you the best tools in crypto.
I keep it simple with my utmost favourite, @DefiLlama.
TVL is a vital metric to gauge growth in an ecosystem overtime.
The graphs below give me conviction in $FXS and #Arbitrum.
Diversification
Always diversify your bets. Luna taught me a hard lesson:
Tail risks are very real.
Expect any project that you invest in to be able to go to zero.
Get rid of the unsystematic risks by having multiple bets.
Diversification #2
However, keep in mind that your portfolio should be kept as lean as possible. Too many bets would mean poor research and conviction.
Have a good number of bets that still enable you to keep up with each and every one of them.
Takeaways
Review your portfolio and ask yourself:
"Do you really know what you are buying?"
"What are your reasons for holding this coin?"
Reflection
I've started keeping track of my progress daily, and I write down my mistakes and my good trades weekly.
Stay accountable to yourself.
Learn from what went wrong to improve what went right for you.
I hope that I have helped you all out with my framework.
My goal is to provide quality information for free.
I've never paid for any crypto course, and I don't think you need to.
What else do you want to see? Feel free to comment down below!
Here is my portfolio on @CoinGecko. Some coins are not included, like $BUGS as it is not yet listed. @DeBankDeFi also does not list that so my ROI should be higher🫢
Note that amounts are arbitrary, and 0 in holdings means that I am not holding the coin.
coingecko.com/en/portfolios/public/1shot1kill
I try my best to update the Gecko portfolio but might forget when I am busy.
The best way to keep up to date on my trades is to turn on 🔔 for my tweets 😄