Analyzing Price Predictions for $ARB Launch

•

➡️ What is a fair price for $ARB? ➡️ How to play the launch to benefit the most? I'm tackling with the most popular takes on CT to separate moon math from data-driven predictions. 9 threads compressed into 9 tweets with action items at the end:

@bigsoros makes a crazy prediction of $40 for $ARB. The logic is not bad: Apply P/E ratio for a tech company to evaluate MC for Arbitrum. But this logic breaks down when he decides to use TVL on the chain as the approximation of earnings. No, it doesn't work like that. twitter.com/bigsoros/status/1637280239733571584

@0xSalazar predicts 15$ using MC/TVL multiples from Polygon, Ethereum and BNB Chain as benchmarks. A highly optimistic approach imo because $MATIC, $ETH and $BNB don't have low % of circ. supply like Arbitrum. For me $OP would be a better benchmark which sets ARB at $1.25. twitter.com/0xSalazar/status/1637756789151203328

@s4mmyEth teases price as high as $14 by adjusting the price of $MATIC for TVL and Circulating Supply difference vs $ARB. But this is just a hook! He is actually more realistic and predicts price closer to $2 basing on current OTC deals at $1 $OP. twitter.com/S4mmyEth/status/1637850204987588608

@TheModestThief derives $ARB price from $OP and $MATIC but focuses on TVL and FDV instead of MC which is reasonable imo. This leads to the price prediction of $1.74. twitter.com/TheModestThief/status/1636374758987300864

@OlimpioCrypto calculates $ARB price basing on FDV of $OP, $MATIC, $FTM and $SOL. His predictions range from pessimistic ($0.30) to ecstatic ($2.50). It's a reasonable approach, although I'd probably rule out prices below $1 as too pessimistic. twitter.com/OlimpioCrypto/status/1636771626560765969

@0xHamz explains his framework for $ARB which is based on daily transactions and sequencer margins. A very interesting approach to value L2 chain for its profitability. (if only crypto traded on fundamentals) twitter.com/0xHamz/status/1637463835992031234

@Finch_in_flight takes the framework from @0xHamz and arrives to $3.4 for $ARB. He calculates a multiple that market is giving to $OP and applies the same for $ARB. I find this approach reasonable but I also doubt many market participants would apply such a logic. twitter.com/Finch_in_flight/status/1637585782834618368

@MacnBTC shares how he is going to play the $ARB launch depending on the price action: - Start buying when 60% of the airdrop has been claimed - Price <$1 = good price - Sell the first pump I have a similar plan and it worries me that everyone will want to do the same :) twitter.com/MacnBTC/status/1637800589630357506

@wacy_time1 shares how to set up your own RPC to frontrun others while claiming and dumping $ARB. Good idea! My concern: are free RPCs reliable at times of high congestion? twitter.com/wacy_time1/status/1637786511927287809

That's it for today! What is your price prediction and why?