🇯🇵 #Japan
To hide #ExcessDeaths, 2 solutions:
1️⃣ Concealing deaths… not easy!
2️⃣ Discreetly inflate death forecasts (calculated)
Obviously, option 2️⃣ has been chosen by the official site exdeaths-japan.org/en/graph/weekly but not very discreetly:
[1/11]
By visualizing the evolution of these “forecasts” since 2017, we understand how fanciful they became from 2020 onwards.
In 2021, excess mortality was exaggerated… just when mRNA technology landed.
In 2022, they seem relatively credible…
[2/11]
1️⃣ In 2023, target is to make people believe in a correction of accumulated excess mortality.
2️⃣ But if we cap this increase in forecasts at increase in the population aged 85 and over, reality is quite different.
Do you see the difference between the two?
[3/11]
And it's still optimistic, because this slice represents less than half of total deaths, if we refer to "Japanese Mortality Database" ipss.go.jp/p-toukei/JMD/index-en.asp
And the population under 85 is experiencing a decline…
[4/11]
To better understand:
🟥 Reassessment of death forecasts for each semester of 2023
🟦 Evolution of major age classes between 2022 and 2023.
To go that hard, there really must be panic!
[5/11]
The only population group to increase slightly significantly in 2023 is that of 75-79 year olds. And this isolated “rebound” peaks at +6.1%.
All other variations are less than +3.3% and often negative.
[6/11]
The excess mortality for 2023 is evident when we get rid of forecast models and return to raw annual figures.
Strong deviation from the multi-year trend irrefutably demonstrates how exdeaths-japan.org/en publishes distorted information.
[7/11]
[NB: Extrapolation for 2023 is done by dividing the partial total, over 43 weeks, by the mortality of the first 47 weeks over the period 2010-2019 and multiplying by the mortality over 52 weeks over this same period]
[8/11]
The exdeaths-japan site is managed by a panel of representatives from the Ministry of Health and numerous scientific organizations, but all in the medical or biology sector.
Apparently no demographer or population statistician. 🤔
exdeaths-japan.org/en
[9/11]
For those who wish to verify these calculations. Weekly data can be downloaded below the graph ( exdeaths-japan.org/data/Estimates_weighted.csv ).
In the Japan_Estimated and Japan_Observed columns.
The excesses correspond to Japan_Observed - Japan_Estimated.
[10/11]
📜 Version déroulée de la discussion en français :
typefully.com/felicittina/0vWEhWl