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🇨🇦 #Canada
Ça monte toujours !
Pour comprendre pourquoi ça devrait baisser, reportez-vous à l'encadré ci-dessous.
Et remplacez "surmortalités" par "surmortalités(+) ou sous-mortalités(-)".
…/…
[1/8]
twitter.com/felicittina/status/1689641389288718336
Les provinces de l'Ouest continuent sur la même tendance têtue, comme le champion BC.
Pour prendre une image pas parfaite, mais de saison :
Au dessus du 🟧, c'est la neige qui tombe,
En dessous, c'est quand la neige fond.
Et là, on serait en mode "Compagnie des glaces" .
[2/8]
Le #Québec a bien eu des petites périodes de dégel, mais qui ne compensent pas grand-chose.
[3/8]
Quant au #Manitoba, @StatCan_fra vient bien d'ajouter quelques semaines de données mais qui s'arrêtent au 3 décembre… 2022.
On les sent pas trop motivés pour communiquer leurs chiffres💤
Les surmortalités des 2 dernières semaines connues étaient de +74% et +66%… 🔕
[4/8]
Gros-plan sur le peloton de tête.
Les décès excessifs en Colombie-Britannique viennent de dépasser l'équivalent d'un semestre complet de décès.
Avec une sous-mortalité constante à -10%, il faudrait 5 ans pour effacer l'ardoise de la période 2020-2023.
[5/8]
A noter que @statcan_fra a omis de préciser les valeurs des décès attendus et donc des surmortalités pour les 4 dernières semaines publiées.
Il s'agit de valeurs calculées et il n'y a donc aucune raison qu'elles manquent.
C'est signalé depuis 24h, mais sans résultat.
[6/8]
J'ai donc fait mon propre calcul en prenant les valeurs des semaines équivalentes pour 2022 et en leur appliquant le taux de revalorisation constaté sur les 4 précédentes semaines de 2022 à 2023.
La marge d'incertitude devrait être de l'ordre du ‰.
[7/8]