Launching new products and figuring out the initial PO sizing is hard.
It’s not an exact science either. (Anyone that tells you differently is lying. It’s an estimate at best.)
With @cogsyapp we have made this simple & delightful. Preview:
The estimation is in understanding which existing products (based on product characteristics or buyer behaviour) is most similar to the new product.
Then looking at those product launches and adjusting for the business is today relative to previous launches.
What we’ve made easy is to quickly run multiple simulations matching to different products.
The key outcome is not an absolute number, as much as finding a smart range.
10% (maybe 20%) over/under for a product launch is a great outcome.
Anything more/less is shitty planning.