𧡠VERY HIGH-RISK play that has my attention is @PrismaFi.
Reasoning:
- Moebius Finance Acquisition
- Emissions Cuts
- Team/Investors Close to Full Vest
- Lending/Borrowing LSTs w/ ETH ETF Launch
I'm buying up $PRISMA on dips and farming triple-digit APRs.
Let's Discuss.. π§΅
Disclaimer - This whole thread is very high-risk..
Let me go full π» to start.
I'll give the reasons I think $PRISMA is a high-risk investment that could easily go further south. If you are convinced that it's going to zero, I'll drop some ideas regarding how you can profit.
Reason #1 - Exploit Debt
If you weren't familiar, $PRISMA had a massive exploit that @zachxbt covers here. 3257 $ETH worth ~$11.1M which set the protocol back massively.
Not many projects have come back from a hack that size.
x.com/zachxbt/status/1780244613808160958
Since the April Exploit, over $1M has been returned to the victims.
The protocol has another ~$1.25M in assets across multiple wallets that are currently farming or being used for project runways.
~$8M hole to be filled and protocol fees for June were $140k. Rough
Reason #2 - Terrible Communication
The @PrismaFi team has been very quiet through normal communication avenues such as Discord / Twitter.
This normally isn't a good sign after an exploit but governance & Prisma emissions voting have stayed active.
Reason #3 - Partnership Emissions
Prisma has integrations with Yearn and Convex and these protocols are still active within Prisma.
The emissions pushed toward PRISMA LPs in the form of $CRV, $CVX, and $YFI have dwindled post-exploit as the ROI has decreased.
Reason #4 - Stablecoins Backing
$PRISMA as a whole has two stablecoins ($mkUSD/$ULTRA) that are backed by the debt of the lending/borrowing positions.
A decentralized stable with a hole in its balance sheet becomes a massively risky position to hold, especially if TVL falls.
If you now believe $PRISMA is going to zero, there are ways to profit from this trade as well.
I'd only recommend playing these if you take the time to learn the underlying protocol mechanisms extremely well.
There are ways to profit in bullish & bearish macro environments.
Every loan taken out on Prisma provided $ETH LST/LRTs as collateral and borrows either $mkUSD or $ULTRA against that position.
Example:
Lend LSTs > Borrow $mkUSD > swap $mkUSD for stablecoins > wait for implosion > repay the debt when $mkUSD collapses for pennies on the dollar.
$mkUSD & $ULTRA are backed supported by Stability Pools.
Stability Pools are incentivized w/ $PRISMA and any liquidations that occur on the platform. These assets are in trouble if we go into a bullish market for $ETH, $PRISMA trends down, and there aren't any $ETH liquidations.
In a bearish market with cascading $ETH liquidations, these stability pools are an amazing spot to park funds.
We've seen that assets like $ULTRA have gone upwards of 10% over their $1 value.
This becomes an opportunity as these assets are in high demand during liquidations.
From a bearish perspective...
I've given you all the reasons $PRISMA could easily go to zero.
Time to talk through why this could make a comeback...
Now to cover all the reasons I'm getting very bullish on @PrismaFi. The top one is their acquisition of @MoebiusFinance, a multi-asset restaking platform.
Moebius will mint its own LRTs starting with @Karak_Network and @eigenlayer.
x.com/PrismaFi/status/1805571644754202908
They will launch with 4 new assets including $mokaLST, $mokaLRT, $mokaUSD, and $moETH.
All of these are baskets of the underlying assets that will earn Karak points, Eigenlayer points, and Moebius Points π.
Moebius Points means they will have a net new token.
These 4 new assets will likely have big benefits when using them for lending/borrowing on $PRISMA.
The expansion of these assets means eigenlayer/karak points, minting/burning fees, and interests on any loans against them.
APRs should be much higher than interest rates.
Moebius earning Kayak/Eigen Points through fees should also give them the flexibility to add mkUSD & ULTRA to their platforms.
Ideally, that would mean something like stmkUSD & stULTRA would launch. Added utility, more liquidity, and juiced yields for both stablecoins.
It was announced that @MoebiusFinance went to audit mid-June through a partnership with @bailsecurity.
Normal audits take about 2-8 weeks. I'm expecting results of this audit to drop any day at this point which should be a nice boost to the protocol.
x.com/MoebiusFinance/status/1801633480985506082
PrismaDAO voted to approve the Moebius Finance acquisition exactly one month ago.
The Proposal - "These options bring more revenue-generating opportunities for Prisma and the DAO in addition to Moevius token and token distribution will be at the discretion of the DAO" π
The latest update that we have seen from either team came from the @MoebiusFinance team in their discord.
July 25th - " We are still working out some details.. and hope to announce something soon."
The vote passed governance so I'm not sure what is being "worked out".
The Prisma DAO will vote on Moebius Token distribution.
The majority of vePRISMA is owned by @ConvexFinance & @yearnfi through their $cvxPRISMA & $yPRISMA lockers.
They both have a large vested interest in distributing Moebius tokens to $PRISMA, $CVX, and $YFI lockers.
Currently, the FDV of $PRISMA is < $9M.
A new restaking platform that is largely owned by Convex & Yearn participants is worth more than $10M immediately.
It just depends how Moebius tokens will be distributed, which will be voted on by the DAO.
$PRISMA is backed by some of the biggest names in DeFi.
I was NOT part of this raise but my understanding it was at $.20 per $PRISMA ($60M FDV). We are currently trading at ~$.03 ($9M FDV) which is more than 2x lower than the seed round even once you account for exploit debt.
I'd assume Moebius could easily raise for $20M-$40M val once connected with the Curve/Convex/Yearn/Prisma Ecosystems.
Let's say 10% of tokens end up going toward $vePRISMA holders over time, that would be $2-4M in rewards. APRs for liquid wrappers would also skyrocket.
76.8M PRISMA are locked into vePRISMA, most of these are permanently locked by Convex/Yearn.
76,800,000 x $.03 = $2.8M locked Prisma
If Moebius launches at $30M FDV and gives 10% of supply to $vePRISMA. that alone is $3M. It's be worth more than the USD value of locked $PRISMA.
On top of potentially doubling your value through Moebius, you also earn protocol fees.
Currently, $cvxPRISMA is paying out 102% APR which is mostly paid out in the Prisma stable $mkUSD.
Fees have slammed since the exploit but the protocol has still earned ~140k in monthly fees for June.
The platform has over $5M+ in debt positions paying 10% Borrow IR meaning they have $500k of income from these positions.
The liquidation cascades earned $PRISMA ~$150k already this week.
Thats more than Prisma earned for the entire month of June in only two days. π
When looking at these lending/borrowing positions, lately the APRs have gotten crushed.
PRISMA APR is lower for some than the interest being paid in Borrow IR.
I think that is because PRISMA is undervalued and should change assuming Moebius pushes fees & price.
APRs are deflated for lending/borrowing because $PRISMA / $ETH LP has been prioritized w/ $PRISMA rewards.
100k weekly $PRISMA rewards in the prior week skyrocketing to 330k+ $PRISMA for native LP.
Liquidity jumped from $130k > $600k+ once changed.
x.com/PrismaFi/status/1811790554247635098
The current voting period ends in about 24 hours and might be finished by the time I post this thread.
PRISMA/ETH is getting the same share of emissions (27.4%) as last week which makes that $600k of liquidity much stickier.
The actual amount of PRISMA rewards decreased...
The reason PRISMA/ETH ends up getting fewer rewards is there was a large emission cut on July 24th.
Each week they they have taken the remaining supply, multiplied it by .9%, and used that figure.
Cutting that multiple by .1% to .8% reduces weekly emissions by 15%+ weekly
A tool I've been using to track fee payouts and emissions:
prisma.lol/?tab=emissions
Their structure is very abnormal so this has been the best source I've found to date.
Another important emissions date is September 1st.
All Early Supporters and Core Contributors will become fully vested. It's <4 weeks away and I think they will it with Moebius.
After that date, all emissions will be used strictly for protocol rewards. Bullish.
August 5th > Septemeber 1st
Total Unlocks Remaining:
Core Contributors - 1,800,000 PRISMA ($54,500)
Early Supporters - 3,940,000 PRISMA ($118,200)
The recent emissions cuts should also help offset this $160k left to unlock.
If $PRISMA ever bounces, it's as vesting ends.
If all 5.7M tokens still vesting were market dumped in a single candle, we'd draw down 50% to roughly $.02.
It's an extreme example, I don't expect every token to be market-dumped into a single LP.
There will be time to scale in as investors dump in the coming weeks.
Post-September 1st, everything is fully vested and all emissions go to protocol users.
Sept 1st 2024 - 177,160,000
Sept 1st 2025 - 215,480,000
Inflation Rate - ~18%
Inflation rate of <20% with the majority of those emissions ending up locked in Convex & Yearn... deflationary?r
IMO, if we haven't bottomed, we're very close.
$cvxPRISMA - .9701
$yPRISMA - .9139
Liquid wrappers have spiked down 5-10% below 1:1 multiple times lately which can lead to great entries. Once again a large chunk of Moebius points will probably be pointed toward these.
Both these vaults are also paying nice APRs.
cvxPRISMA - 102% in mkUSD, CVX, & PRISMA
yPRISMA - 148%+ in mkUSD or yPRISMA
The yield on these being paid largely in mkUSD makes a perfect hedge for any pullbacks.
LPing these liquid wrappers will be the move if $PRISMA does eventually bottom and reverse price action.
yPRISMA/PRISMA - 131% paid in PRISMA
cvxPRISMA/PRISMA - 132% paid in CRV, CVX, and PRISMA
Once Team/Investors are vested, it's hard to imagine these not crushing.
$PRISMA has quite literally one of the ugliest charts I've ever seen between 30% to the team/insiders and a massive exploit. Down only.
$.024 feels like a bottom at ~$7.5M FDV.
< .05 should be a steal assuming Moebius is coming.
Possible bullish divergence playing out as well.
Charted against $ETH it looks stronger than USD pairings.
Excuse the sloppy chart, threw this one together quickly. HTF looks to be showing strength against $ETH and is nearly at the same levels as 6 weeks ago.
Triple-digit yields make this more attractive.
There are 44M PRISMA in circulation right now.
14M+ of those PRISMA are in these 4 DEX liquidity pools.
CEXs like HTX, MEXC, and CoinEx also have a decent chunk of supply in order book liquidity. It won't take much for there to be a squeeze on liquid PRISMA.
There is a long-term path to success and profitability.
If Moebius rolls out smoothly, pulls a decent-sized TVL, and integrates the new assets into the Prismas platform there is a path to success.
Moebius points become in demand & skyrocket APRs w/ Karak & Eigenlayer.
Recent emissions cuts, Team/Investor sell pressure finalized, and APRs are still massive for farmers.
I wouldn't be surprised to see PRISMA squeeze heavily after a few announcements drop. I'd guess sometime between now & mid-September.