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Hoaxlines data analysis of Putin's approval rating alongside Russian aggression abroad affirms what other research has found. Putin's aggression abroad often reduces disapproval ratings and boosts approval ratings. hoaxlines.org/putins-approval-and-aggression-abroad
The rapid improvement in attitudes toward Putin and the lack of lasting consequences leaves an incentive for the Kremlin to repeat even ineffective tactics. The potential payoff is high. Maintaining power is a life-or-death matter for Putin today. But the rewards go beyond that.
Just as Putin has adapted to the system around him, NATO can too. NATO can respond to the current circumstances, which seem to incentivize these behaviors from multiple angles.
Here's how/why.
The boost in support associated with military action–if genuinely explained by it–is remarkable, lasting, and only seems to wane when Putin violates the unspoken norms of their social contract, as with raising the age for pensions or mobilizing them to fight in Ukraine.
Policymakers who wish to deter Russia from what is now a well-worn series of tactics must tie undesirable actions to costs that the Russian people will perceive as violating Putin’s social contract with his subjects.
The public turns a blind eye to Putin's behavior and rampant corruption, but they expect a few things -- they expect a pension, of course. They also expect to be able to travel. 63% of Moscow residents have traveled abroad, according to the Levada Analysis Center.
Although many have claimed the public can't protest against the war, we see that they are willing to protest as they did in 2018 when the government considered increasing the age at which Russians receive their pensions. That's what caused the steep incline in disapproval.
This is the feedback loop that appears when you look at data from 1999 to 2022. While some argue that new countries joining NATO somehow increases the risk of violence, no evidence supports this claim. Decades of evidence show the precise opposite.
Still, we responded as if this was not the case. This is how other countries reward Putin. Here's a more concrete example. Russia’s behavior makes other countries want to join NATO by unleashing devastation in non-NATO countries while exercising restraint toward NATO countries.
The Second Chechen War was part of the motivation (easy to see why) for Georgia and Ukraine to join. Russia has never attacked or invaded a NATO country but has repeatedly attacked and invaded non-NATO states.
We gave Russia what it wanted.
Nov 2008 - "The Bush admin. has supported putting the two former Soviet republics on a formal path...toward joining NATO. But there is considerable (EU) opposition, which has grown since Georgia’s war with Russia..."
reuters.com/article/us-nato-usa-members-idUSTRE4AP07A20081126
Nov 2008 - "NATO leaders promised 🇺🇦 and 🇬🇪...in April that they would one day join the Western defense alliance but declined to offer them the formal path toward membership because of 🇫🇷 and 🇩🇪 objections." Must be why 🇫🇷 and 🇩🇪 have sent so many weapons cnbc.com/2022/09/16/ukraine-slams-germany-for-failing-to-send-it-weapons.html
July 2014 - Know what happened a month later? Flight MH17 was hit by a Russian-made Buk missile and killed 283 passengers, including 80 children. 3 of the 4 people charged with the murders were Russian intelligence officers. bbc.com/news/world-europe-28357880
June 2017 - GRU officers attempted a coup in Montenegro (Remember how no one wanted to let them in bc it might make Russia mad?). A Supreme Court Justice of Montenegro said, “The organization aimed at preventing Montenegro’s accession to NATO.” warsawinstitute.org/russian-gru-agents-found-guilty-attempted-montenegro-coup/
Juxtapose this against what happens when NATO meets expressions of interest with a much shorter period between a decision/invitation and accession. With more time, it seems likely Russia might have attempted to dissuade Finland or Sweden.
Russia threatened nuclear retaliation if Sweden, Finland joined NATO (Also, yes, there are major differences between Ukraine and Georgia vs Sweden and Finland. Still, it's clear NATO needs to address the vulnerabilities and irrational behavior, which I'll discuss later).
Nuclear threats have become something of a standard potential response to anything that offends Russia:
• 2008 - Putin issues nuclear threat to Ukraine over plan to host US shield theguardian.com/world/2008/feb/13/russia.putin
Russia understands the rules–though it doesn’t follow them–which is why it threatens countries’ territorial integrity. NATO must learn from the situation and find a path to membership that removes incentive and rewards for attacking potential members.
hoaxlines.org/putins-approval-and-aggression-abroad/feedback-loop-infographic
We see a grand promise: Anyone may join. When countries facing serious security threats, an obvious impetus for interest, express a desire to join NATO, their interest is often met with hesitation or delay, leaving them vulnerable to sabotage and military action from Russia.
NATO should become what it pretends to be: a defensive alliance that accepts those willing to meet requirements, even if they need help. It should stop allowing sabotage by taking years to accept potential members before saying, "Oh, well I guess you can't join."
The most effective responses may be those that cause Putin to violate the Russian social contract. Whatever NATO does, it should not continue rewarding Putin's behavior. NATO should not allow countries that don't pull their own weight to veto countries that would.
This is unacceptable, unethical, and exploitative. Members contributing nothing but pro-Russian takes instead of required contribution are the ones turning others away, using them like living buffers. If NATO wants to reduce Russian aggression, it should stop rewarding Russia.
No evidence suggests that admitting these countries back when the US first advocated for it would have led to anything more serious than it did when Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Romania, and so many others joined. The evidence does suggest we might have saved 100s of 1000s of lives.