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A Winter/Spring of Slaughter
For a while now the Russian use of infantry-led assaults has been leading to very high casualties. It might be that this is going to get worse.
Russia has been relying on small unit, infantry led assaults for a while now.
Russian vehicle losses have been so extraordinarily high, and one imagines that their supply problems are so complex as they have to keep the large depots out of HIMARs range, that they have decided to rely on what they have lots of, poorly trained human beings.
Indeed, more evidence is emerging of the way the Russians were fighting when they had better trained troops and more equipment they could use.
The Wavell Room has released this fascinating document, which outlined a Russian assault plan on a village in Kherson province a few months ago. What stands out is the inflexibility of plans, and the lack of coordination between the different military arms.
What seems to be happening now is something similar (or worse). Many untrained soldiers being pushed forward to try and reveal Ukrainian positions, so that some better troops in the rear would have a chance to engage.
“A senior U.S. military official last month described the combat around Bakhmut as savage.
The two sides exchanged several thousand rounds of artillery fire eachday, while the Wagner private military company, which has been central to Russia’s efforts there, had essentially begun using recruited convicts as cannon fodder, the official told reporters.
He spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational details.
The convicts took the brunt of the Ukrainian response while the group’s more seasoned fighters moved in behind them to claim ground, the official said. Wagner has recruited some 50,000 troops to fight in Ukraine, according to senior American military and defense officials.
Thousands of the convicts have been killed, a loss of life that has shocked American officials, who say the strategic value of Bakhmut simply is not in line with the price Russia has paid.”
Now we seem to be seeing an increase in these Russian attacks in more places than Bakhmut and Soledar, as Russian commanders have access to more and more infantry from their mobilization process.
Estimates now are that the Russians have approximately 300,000 soldiers in occupied Ukraine, at least 100,000 more than they had when the full scale invasion started on February 24, 2022. The 300,000 figure was recently given by Ukrainian defense minister Reznikov.
twitter.com/euromaidanpress/status/1621093821705588738?s=61&t=KLeRSu5IvlkLeECpWx_3ZA
So the Russian attacks have started and are poised to increase. It seems that Putin wants to take as much of Ukrainian territory as possible that he has already illegally annexed.
Now the good news for Ukraine in this coming mess, is that the Russians still don’t seem to be able to patiently assemble well-trained and supported assault forces. Instead, they seem to be feeding troops into combat piecemeal up and down the line as they become available.
For Ukraine this obviously poses a challenge, though in a bloody way an opportunity. Ukraine needs time to integrate all the new weapons it has been promised, from the artillery systems, IPCs, APCs and MBTs. This will take time, even for the adaptable Ukrainians.
What they seem to be doing, and one hopes it continues, is to go on the defensive in the meantime, trying to keep Ukrainian losses down.
Btw, if this means that they have to surrender a village here, or a small town there—that is worth doing if what they can do is keep the balance of losses very much in their favor.
Though there is constant talk of this town or that being ‘strategic’, that is actually an exaggeration. None of these towns affect Ukrainian force generation.
Their big advantage is that the further the front line is forward, the further Ukrainian ranged systems can fire behind Russian lines. We can see how important such range is, with the Russians placement of their depots.
So we are setting up for a winter/spring of slaughter. It will be ugly. However, the basic trends of the war are still there. Ukraine is still getting stronger, better systems.
Once Ukraine gets these, that should lead to massive logistical problems for Russia. Basically Ukraine could hit every inch of occupied Ukraine outside of Crimea (and much of Crimea as well).
So until Ukraine gets access to all the new NATO weapons, and can launch operations against Russian logistics and front line forces simultaneously, its probably not a bad thing that the Russians do the attacking.
It wont be pretty, and Im sure the same chorus that went nuts over the suppposedly great Popasna breakthrough or the fall of the strategic fortress city of Soledar will continue their bleatings.
However, keep the aid flowing to Ukraine, increase their range and capabilities (yes ATACMS would be the ultimate) and the war is still heading strategically in the direction of Ukrainian success.
US Public Opinion—Some More Evidence
People who have been following my twitter feed for a while know that I have a fascination with how US public opinion reacts to war.
Its such a poorly understood subject in general discourse, and this war has revealed that people prefer the old tropes over the much better explanations that academic research has revealed over the last few decades.
Now, I think that this war has shown the general strength of the argument that says victory is the most important determinant in how the US public views war. In other words, if a war is winnable, they will back it.
However, there is some indication that another view also has some merits (rarely are these things monocausal). Basically, while many/most Americans are influenced by ideas of victory, a significant percentage are motivated by partisan identity.
This phenomenon became most apparent during the attacks on Serbia/Kosovo in 1999. This was an interesting outlier in US public opinion. Many people assumed at that point that the Republicans were generally the more hawkish party and the Democrats more peace-oriented.
This war turned things on their heads. Republicans were considerably less supportive of the war, seeing it as a Clinton/Democrat operation, while Democrats were considerably more supportive.
In this case, partisan identity did seem to play a large role for a sizable slice of the electorate. We seem to be seeing something similar in elements of the Republican Party today.
Had the Republicans taken both houses of Congress during the midterms, thus empowering even more their populist base, it could have led to significant Republican obstruction in Congress.
As it is, many pro-Ukraine Republicans are acting more vocal since the elections, in which the Democrats did better than expected.
Of course, the closer we get to the 2024 presidential election, the more the need to appeal to the populist base of the party will grow for those eyeing the White House, and the more the partisan divide could grow. It bears watching.