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The Premier League is the best league in the world and, since 2015, has been setting trends on how football evolves stylistically. So what models and strategies will be the predictors for success in smaller competitions? #bigthread
The pictures always show you the expected points from the previous season and the statistic that predicts their gain. And mainly the correlation line, which tells whether using this style of play brings points. The steeper the line, the more successful the strategy is.
1. Passes per sequence
Number of passes per possession. Apart from Newcastle, which is an outlier, there was no successful team in the Premier League that played long balls and very simply upfield.
2. Metres per sequence
Passes per sequence must be linked with how much teams move forward with the ball. We have to gain something with it. Specifically with Newcastle, we see that although they didn't hold the ball much, they could move towards the opponent's goal.
3. Deep completions
This metric measures successful passes in the last 20m of the field. Again, we see that ball control leads to success and the main problem Chelsea and Tottenham had in the final third.
4. Retention in Final third
Similar information is shown by retention in the Final third. Here we see how long teams can keep the ball in the final third and wait for the right opportunity. Here we see that Manchester United has a problem, which solves situations hastily either
by Rashford/Sancho/Antony dribbling or by Bruno's rushed pass.
5. xG/Shot
Another trend that hasn't yet reached more minor leagues is creating quality shots. Analytical Brentford ends, on average, with a 12.5% chance of scoring a goal, which is extreme.
Tottenham and Chelsea again had a big problem creating quality chances. West Ham often relied on crosses, which have high variance.
6. Shots
Brentford is really interesting in that they only go for big chances and are not interested in the half ones.
7. Counter-attacks
The counters are interesting. It used to be the biggest weapon, but now Newcastle, Arsenal, and especially Manchester City prefer prepared situations where they don't lose control by speeding up solutions. Rather keep the ball and have more control.
8. After Won possession
Manchester City is extreme. If they win the ball, the opponent takes it from them only in 14% of cases. Safety and control first.
9. Returned possession
I've already mentioned that Arsenal don't even crave counterattacks, they regain possession within 10s in 25% of cases after losing it, so loosing the ball must be controlled and with a prepared structure and rest-defence.
Newcastle is again an outlier in this, which defends space much more after losing it.
10. Pressing + PPDA
Unsurprisingly, pressing has been key in the last few years, but the correlation with results is not so high. PPDA calculates how many passes we allow the opponent on our part of the field before we make a defensive action (pressing, tackle, duel).
Newcastle is phenomenal, the hardest working team in recent times. But it can be done without sophisticated pressing, as can be seen with ManCity.
11. Defensive line
How high a line will we need? Manchester United gained quite a lot of points given that their strategy was more of a lower mid block. I'm curious how much Spurs will change with the new coach because now they defended rather very low, while Celtic pressed.
12. Quality of shots against
This isn't so much about style. You can't let the opponent finish huge chances. But the average shot at Liverpool's goalkeeper Allison had a 14% chance of ending up in the net. That happens when your pressing (midfield) completely stops working.
13. Counter-attacks
It's good not to concede counterattacks, but it's not nearly as important as defending your own penalty area well. Brighton conceded a large number of breaks, yet placed high. But passivity around one's own box doesn't pay off for anyone."
14. Deep completions allowed
Here we can see Brighton defending well and the only outlier is again, Manchester United with their pressing not working properly.
Summary
In the coming years, I'd suggest coaches prioritise possession and control, create quality chances, and carefully manage their rest defence.
While counterattacks and pressing can be effective, don't rely on them too heavily, as they may lead to loss of control and unsafe situations. Defense is essential, especially in your own penalty area. Consider the pressing game but balance it with other strategies to perform.
Thank you for your time. I appreciate likes and retweets, so this reaches a wider audience. And don't forget to follow if you are interested in this kind of analysis. Cheers!