Your Biggest Mistake In The J4 Cheating Scandal, And What Every Poker Player Should Learn From It
On day one of the saga, I was at 80% "did not cheat" 🚫
On day five, I flipped to 90% "did cheat" ✅
Here's why leaning innocent early on is the ONLY logical approach to cheating investigations.
Owning one of the largest poker staking companies in the world comes with
its fair share of cheating scandals.
I've wrongfully suspected cheating in the past, and those experiences motivated me to reach for a deeper understanding of selection bias.
Accounting for selection bias requires a reframing of the question:
From: "What is the likelihood that an innocent person would call with J4 in this spot?"
To: "What is the likelihood that an innocent person would EVER call with J4 in this spot if given MANY chances to do it?"
Here's what this event looks like in the context of larger hand samples:
twitter.com/nickhowardpoker/status/1576966850218381312
When failing to account for selection bias, it's easy to assume that highly unusual events = cheating.
Some people in the J4 case were strongly convinced of cheating early on simply due to the bizarre nature of the hand.
These are the people who don't understand selection bias.
To counteract the power of selection bias in a singular event, you need a smoking gun.
The details of the stack theft didn't provide that, but they were significant enough to flip a rational person from "leaning innocent" to "likely guilty".
But what else motivates people to assume that cheating occurred before they have a smoking gun?
Some people have a strong history of being deceived in their past, which can cause them to over-correct toward a more cynical worldview.
It's a fairly common defense mechanism.
On the other end of the spectrum are those who operate from what is known as a "truth bias".
These people believe others are telling the truth more often than they actually are.
Holding the truth bias requires a LOT less energy than the bias that constantly scans for deception.
It's also possible that "truth biased" people encountered less deception from characters in their past, or internalized those experiences differently.
It didn't produce a cynical over-correction.
I'm only half joking when I post these types of things:
twitter.com/nickhowardpoker/status/1547465745843359744?s=20&t=ifLSN8ayEZ8yIi5V6cInNQ
Circling back ...
If selection bias is not honored in poker cheating scandals, the investigation loses objectivity.
This is why the most rational minds in the community were leaning towards innocence early on.
Without a smoking gun, it's the only logical option.
You can always move towards a higher likelihood of cheating as more evidence is introduced, but you have to begin on the side of innocence in order to account for selection bias.
Relying on "common sense" just doesn't cut it.
We're currently in a poker climate where many people think that ANY anomalous play is instantly grounds for a cheating accusation.
This type of thinking uses fractured logic to damage the reputations of people who are actually innocent.
It's reckless.
We still need to investigate diligently in order to protect people from instances where cheating actually occurred, but selection bias needs to remain paramount in those investigations.
The J4 case proved that we're not collectively aligned here.
Prepare for a future where people will often be accused of cheating in situations where they did nothing wrong.
When it happens again, it would be beneficial to the community if more people initially defaulted towards "innocent", and rationally worked their way towards "guilty".
Hopefully we can encourage each other to postpone our snap-judgements as we work together towards a more complete understanding of the case.
That path is more truthful, and the truth is safe because it's consistent.
Encouraging a more rational approach to cheating accusations is crucial if we want to foster a safer climate for the poker community.
If you'd like to put your stamp on that, please RT the first tweet of this thread to help raise awareness.
See you in the next scandal.
Thanks for reading.
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