How to choose the RIGHT poker training path to get you to high stakes in 2023:
It's officially 2023 and if you're like most poker players, you're overwhelmed by all the strategy content out there.
But don't worry.
In less than 3 minutes, you'll have the confidence to choose the right training path for you..
For transparency, I own @PokerDetox, one of the largest staking projects in poker and the industry leader in data-driven strategies.
My goal here is to deliver an even report of the different training paths available.
For most players, it will not be the path that PD offers.
“I want to get to high stakes.”
That’s what most players say when they reach out for coaching.
But below the surface, they have a LOT of opinions about how that process should look.
Here’s what I often hear when I ask them to get more specific about the type of training they’re looking for:
“I want to get to high stakes, but I don’t want a coach making uncomfortable changes to my strategy.”
Unfortunately for most poker players, there’s too many things wrong with their game (and their instincts) for that to be a viable path.
The reality is there are many strategy adjustments that MUST be made in order to beat high stakes.
Most of them are uncomfortable.
With that said, the realization awaiting this type of player is that they do not actually want to be trained.
What they actually want is permission to wander through the game tree without being held strategically accountable.
In fact, they will resist any coach who holds them accountable until they find one who either:
1. Believes the same things they do
Or..
2. Lets them do whatever they want
@PokerDetox, we don’t train this type of player.
That's because the "right" path is mostly a question of program compatibility.
A lot of poker players prefer to rely on instincts and subjective reasoning.
They simply don't want their thought process held accountable to any sort of objective review.
Some of them play great.
But training requires change, and change is not possible if the student insists on using subjective arguments to refute their coach's advice.
Here's what those arguments might sound like..
“My games play different / they never fold here / they never bluff there.."
And my personal favorite:
"I played 10,000 hands and this new strategy isn't working."
If you're someone who uses these arguments, you might be untrainable.
You also might be the next Stu Ungar.
I'll come back to that.
For now let’s flip the example around and look at a different type of player – one who is concerned about their coach using either inconsistent or subjective hand analysis.
“I want to get to high stakes, but I feel like my coach gives me a different answer every time. I know he’s a big winner, but his thought process isn’t clear and I struggle to reproduce it.”
Where the untrainable player had a strong preference for following their instincts, this player craves a reproducible thought process.
I relate to this second type of player, because I almost quit poker in 2015 due to a shortage of reproducible frameworks.
At that point, I had exhausted all of the training resources I was aware of and could only see two paths forward:
1. Build a more reliable method for analyzing hands
2. Get a real job
I had become desperate enough that I no longer cared about "style", all I cared about was being able to depend on poker as a career.
And if I was going to use a line of reasoning to support a decision in a hand, then it needed to be objective.
It needed to be objective because I was aware that using half-baked assumptions would make it impossible for me to reproduce correct decisions.
You see, I couldn't rely on instincts any longer, and I knew that.
How?
Because someone with great instincts would have been making much more money than I was.
Here’s a worthy moment to pause:
Maybe you really are the next big thing in poker, and no one will ever be able to match your instincts.
Or maybe your ego is still in the process of exhausting itself by spinning a desperate fantasy, where you play the role of the naturally talented hero who's just waiting for their luck to turn.
Whatever the case may be, if you're a struggling poker player who is still invested in the belief that your instincts are reliable, then one thing is certain:
The data-driven path is not for you.
That's because training with a data-driven method requires you to accept that your ego has been hijacking your instincts for a very long time.
If you manage to do that, you will find that you suddenly prefer a proven, reproducible strategy.
Why?
Because training for reproducibility maximizes your chance of getting to high stakes without needing reliable instincts.
Now you can decide:
Do you want to bet on the likelihood that your instincts are reliable, or not?
Remember, there’s no right answer.
Many of the greatest players went all-in on their instincts.
Just keep in mind that for every Stu Ungar, there were 1,000 other deluded heroes who thought they had great instincts, but didn’t.
And they are no longer playing poker.
With that said, if you prefer to bet on your instincts, you should look for a program that gives you a LOT of room to follow them (or consider a lone wolf approach).
If instead you prefer to bet on a coach who has great results, but whose thought process you can't understand, just know that you're taking a gamble.
You can improve your chances on this path by making sure you get a lot of 1-on-1 access to the coach.
The more access you have to them, the more likely it is that their instincts will rub off on you.
Important side note:
There are two types of instincts worth distinguishing when looking for a poker coach who does NOT subscribe to a data-driven method.
The first is "exploitative instinct" , which refers to the coach's ability to detect and calibrate to pool imbalances (without explicitly referencing population analysis).
The second is what I call "sim instinct", which refers to the coach's ability to accurately recall and extrapolate on balanced solver plays that they have studied in the past.
With that distinction in mind, here is what you need to remember:
If you choose a coach who can't express their thought process clearly, then your goal should be to reproduce their instincts (not their thought process).
Why?
Because solvers don't have thoughts, and population analysis is the only objective form of exploitative hand analysis.
Now it’s time to pay tribute to the coaches who rely mostly on instincts, and truly are great.
I promised you an even report.
The only thing in question here is the reproducibility of their decision making process, which is of paramount importance to certain types of students.
Some of these coaches have actually begun to use population analysis to supplement their instincts.
The more they calibrate their instincts to data, the more they belong to the final training path – the data-driven path.
The data-driven path uses population analysis (MDA) to exploit pool behaviors.
It relies on stable decision making frameworks and performs best in semi-anonymous pools. In tougher known pools, it incorporates "sim instinct" and simplified GTO protocols.
Here's an example of what analyzing a typical river spot sounds like when a player is using a data-driven method:
"I’m facing a bet on the river with a mixed strategy hand, it’s either a call or a fold. But 200M hands of population analysis tells me that this player profile bluffs the river 3% too often in this scenario, so I have a clear +EV call."
Three things make the data-driven method the most reproducible path to high stakes:
1. It doesn’t require the student to have good instincts.
2. The instructions are explicit, which solves the problem of an unclear coach.
3. It's all based on proven data.
Thanks for reading.
If you would like answers to more of your poker questions, come ask me at a free live webinar on January 6th, 1PM EST.
Everyone who signs up will get a recording of the call.
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If you feel like the data-driven method might be for you, then enroll in my next 30 Day Training Camp before doors close, and make an informed decision once you're on the inside.
Only 100 seats are available and it's completely refundable.:
pokerdetox.com/course/30-day-training-camp/