Here's what the $APE data is telling us before the @OthersideMeta mint.
Spoiler: it's SHOCKING and no one is ready...
TLDR:
Very few people hold enough $APE to mint.
The demand for $APE will rise as people buy more.
AND OR
The auction will go low because people don't have sufficient $APE.
One BIG caveat: ALL of these numbers are speculative (and NONE of this is financial advice)
Most people are looking at $APE the wrong way — using technical analysis or comparable projects.
NFT degens DGAF about charts or comps.
They just know Otherside is a virtually guaranteed profitable mint and they'll need $APE to buy it...
The current distribution of $APE is pictured below.
ONLY 16k people have 300+ $APE.
These numbers may seem shocking at first... they did for me.
However, we must remember most of the $APE in circulation came from the airdrop to holders.
$APE's circulating supply is very low.
People are starting to buy $APE and the price is mooning because supply is so low.
In the last 48 hrs:
· Price 📈 22.3%
· Unique holders 📈 8.8%
· Holders with 300+ 📈 4.8%
~140k people did KYC... I wonder what happens when they learn the mint details...
There are multiple variables that will impact the mint:
1. Mint size
2. Wallet allowance
3. Amount of $APE on exchanges
4. % of holders who miss the mint
5. % of $APE holders who did KYC
6. How much $APE these holders are willing to spend
To keep things simple and conservative, let's assume:
1. 70k mint
2. Wallet allowance of 10
3. 67% of $APE holders did KYC
4. Everyone mints and mints as much as they can
And yes, some $APE will flow in from exchanges but let's assume it's offset by saying everyone max mints.
It's literally IMPOSSIBLE for the DA to sell out at 250 $APE based on the above constraints.
Btw, this is also assuming 100% of accounts will buy at the bottom of the DA.
So, if the DA starts at 600 and a bunch of people mint, these numbers will be lower.
Alright, we've determined where the DA can bottom out but does that mean the land will be profitable?
No one knows what the floor price will be but I think it's fair to assume there will be tons of demand because...
· Many non-KYC people will want to buy
· MAJOR LEAGUE Institutional money will enter
· Many people priced out of existing Yuga NFTs will want one
Now...
there arguably aren't any comparable collections to Otherside but we can view the FLOOR MCAP of a few collections for context:
· BAYC: $4.2B
· MAYC: $2.2B
· Sandbox: $664M
· Moonbirds: $758M
· Decentraland: $617M
· Vee Friends 2: $124M
The Otherside NFT floor price will be...
$10k if we estimate a $1B MCAP for Otherside.
The maximum minting cost will be ~$4.5k (assuming $APE is ~$22).
Which means minters should expect at least a 2x profit using these conservative figures.
You have a low risk bet with extremely high immediate upside IF you have KYC and Yuga confirms these assumptions.
But... there are three risks...
1. You buy $APE and miss the opportunity to mint
This is especially risky if there isn't a direct utility for $APE after the mint as it'd likely dump.
This risk will be offset sightly by the 5-10% of circulating $APE that's being taken out of the ecosystem.
2. The supply is <70k
A low supply (eg, 55k or even a surprise 10-20k collection) could make a lot of people feel priced out of the mint and begin dumping their $APE.
3. Wallet allowance >10
This is the one that could really fuck things up.
The KYC'd whales could just eat up this entire mint if Yuga has an absurdly high wallet allowance like the 45 in the rumored test contract.
But even then...
it'd be whales eating into each other's bags by frontrunning at high price levels.
This seems highly unlikely but still possible.
I think everyone agrees a high wallet allowance would absolutely suck and make Otherside extremely exclusive.
It could turn everyone off of Otherside which would have a huge negative impact on NFTs.
Many KYC'd people would be priced out and get rekt with $APE inevitably crashing too.
It'd be tough to see excited new NFT investors leave the ecosystem with a terrible experience...
FOMO will be crazy and $APE will likely rise to $30+ if the max mint is <=10.
The whales will still be able to get their bag by dumping some $APE on Saturday morning.
You may be thinking, why is no one talking about this?
First, I think very few people are looking at the data.
Second, it's personally disadvantageous to share this info because it gives up an information advantage going into the mint.
Lastly...
I think ape holders are coping with selling $APE too soon and haven't bought back yet. So, their bags aren't aligned with this narrative yet.
There are ONLY 2.6k wallets with 10k+ $APE and 7.8k with 2k+.
Honestly, I was in the same boat and it felt shitty buying back in at $18.
My prediction:
$APE rises to $35+ during the mint and the DA will bottom out at 150 $APE.
I wouldn't be surprised to see $APE at $50+ if Yuga announces an NFT marketplace.
I also wouldn't be surprised to see the DA fall to 100 if the max mint is <=5.
Thank you @TomJWhiteIV, @amaan_eth, @CapetainTrippy, @corporatetrash1, @MikeDausend, @anthonyfmoore1, @yelo51127211, and @moneymacc, for jamming on this.
Also thanks to @marcov_91 for the great @duneanalytics dashboard and @etherscan for the data!