Vladislav Surkov is reportedly arrested. For years he ran Russian domestic politics and later Kremlin's policy in Ukraine. On Feb 15 he published an article calling for the war to reannex Ukraine, Belarus and Baltics. Today I'll discuss his role in Putin's rise to Presidency🧵

Surkov has mixed heritage. His dad is Chechen - Andarbek Dudaev, his mom is Russian - Zoya Surkova. He spent his childhood in a Chechen village where he was known as Aslanbek Dudaev. But then his parents divorced and his mom took him to Russia proper, where he turned to Vladislav

After school Surkov served in army, in military intelligence. With the start of Perestroika, commerce was allowed in the USSR. In 1987 Surkov started working for Khodorkovsky, who would soon become the richest oligarch in Russia. Here you see Surkov, Nevzlin and Khodorkovsky

How did Khodorkovsky get so rich? This story reflects the origins of many oligarchic fortunes. Khodorkovsky was the chief of local NТТМ - Office for Scientific and Technological Initiatives of the Youth. NTTM was a department of Komsomol - the youth branch of the Communist Party

Until Perestroika positions in these NТТМ centres were not that lucrative. Komsomol functionaries serving there didn't have much leverage. But then everything changed. To understand why, we'll do a little trip into the Soviet monetary system and how did the Soviet money function

In 1929-1932 Stalin imposed total control over the Soviet economy. All enterprises were turned into state enterprises. To facilitate his statist model Stalin built new monetary system. In traditional system there was one circular flow of money. Stalin created two separate flows

The first one was the cash flow. The state used cash to pay wages to people and people used it to buy stuff from the state. Second flow was noncash. Government enterprises and agencies used it for transactions with each other. Cashing out noncash money was absolutely prohibited

Why would Stalin do that? Largely to pump money into the industry without triggering hyperinflation. Government created as much money as necessary for  construction + subsidies, but made sure it won't be used by regular people for buying stuff. Hence prohibition for cashing out

Prices on retail market were quite arbitrary. For example public transport was far cheaper than it really costed to the state. Meanwhile cars were super expensive, the state selling them with like 200-300% profit. State earned money selling cars and thus funded the public transit

And yet noncash prices were *way* more arbitrary. For example, textile and aerospace industry production was valued in noncash roubles. But regarding the cost of production, the weight of a noncash ruble in the latter could be hundreds or thousands times higher than in the former

The system worked as long as the Soviet economy remained strictly statist. As long as the prohibition to cash out noncash money was enforced. But in Perestroika they experimented with introducing market elements to the statist economy and this new hybrid system didn't work at all

In 1988 the new Law on Cooperation officially allowed the commerce. In theory it would allow normal people to do business ("кооператив"). In practice however, Soviet/Russian "business" was mostly about government functionaries cashing out their administrative leverage

A government agency (factory, ship company, local government) would establish a private firm (cooperative) with the agency's CEO as the main beneficiary. CEO of a state agency would plunder it in order to transfer resources to his private firm. That's why they were so lucrative

In 1988 NTTMs were allowed to break a great Soviet taboo on cashing out the noncash money, making them a leverage for plunder. An NTTM chief would establish a private cooperative, cash out government noncash funds and transfer them to his cooperative, effectively privatising them

Of course, NTTM chiefs started cashing out as much noncash funds as they could. That triggered hyperinflation, destroying the frailing Soviet economy, but created some enormous fortunes. Such as the one of Khodorkovsky - the future richest oligarch in Russia

This shows why the NТТМ leadership is so overrepresented among the richest Russians. They used the crony opportunities Komsomol gave them and cashed out lavishly. Moreover, it shows why former Komsomol leaders in general are so overrepresented among the current Russian elites

Soviet propaganda portrayed Komsomol as idealistic youth faithful to the Leninism. This was often true in 1920-1960s. However, by the 1980s true believers were selected out. New leadership consisted of incredibly cynical and opportunistic folk - such as Khodorkovsky or Matvienko

Upward mobility within the adult Party was difficult by the 1980s. Frailing gerontocracy occupied all the positions of power and refused to leave. So young smart and cynical Komsomol guys waited for their chance, and exploited the collapse of Soviet system better than anyone else

Let me quote Dorenko:

"We'll live for 130 years. My kids and grandkids will live in my shadow. Only my great-great-grandchildren will see the sky. We'll fuck everyone. Why us? Cuz we've plundered the country. We killed, slandered our fathers. That's why our generation is unique"

So Surkov started working for a crony Komsomol official Khodorkovsky as his PR deputy. Khodorkovsky's star was rising and Surkov's too. Soon he was leading the PR service for the richest oligarch in Russia, controlling its largest oil company

Surkov was too smart too put all eggs into one basket. While working for Khodorkovsky he consulted the government. So in 1999 when Voloshin became the chief of Yeltsin's Presidential Adimistration, he chose Surkov as his deputy. So he left his former boss for the new Kremlin job

Surkov became Kremlin's deputy its domestic policy. His most important task was "drowning" the ousted ex-PM Primakov and advancing new Yeltsin's successor - Putin. Putin had full support of the Kremlin, but was totally unknown. You needed to make him electable

Putin had Kremlin, but Primakov had regional elites. 84 out of 89  governors supported Primakov. And governors used to have a lot of power back then, especially leaders of major cities like Moscow and St Petersburg. Meanwhile the unknown Putin's party "Unity" had zero governors

In early 1999 nearly 100% of the non-Kremlin political establishment supported Primakov seeing him as the obvious successor. Those who didn't were usually outcasts whom Primakov didn't accept for some reason. And yet, Kremlin did everything they could to prevent Primakov's rise

Surkov personally talked with governors and persuaded 39 of them to join Putin. So now Putin had 39 and Primakov only 45. How did Surkov accomplish it? First, he made it clear that Kremlin won't allow Primakov to win. The fact that Putin had dossiers on all of them might help too

Surkov also did fund-raising. Berezovsky and Abramovich were the two biggest donors for the Putin's campaign, but there were many others. On average businessmen would donate just 10 million dollars each - more like insurance in case Putin wins

A clique that pushed Putin to power was deeply interconnected. Berezovsky knew Putin since early 1990s when he worked in St Petersburg Government. Reportedly it was Berezovsky who first proposed to the Family that former Sobchak's deputy could become a heir to the Russian throne

Btw, watch this interview with Putin who just moved to Moscow in 1996. He talks as a shy nervous civil servant who owes everything to his superiors and thinks that the presidential household management is the work which suits his talents best

Let's discuss Berezovsky clique. Media tycoon Berezovsky was the mastermind. Voloshin, his former aide who would later lead presidential administration was a numbers guy. And Dorenko was a wordcel, or perhaps *the* wordcel. The most powerful reputation destroyer in Russia

I like the story of how Berezovsky hired Dorenko. In 1994 enemies tried to kill Berezovsky. They put a bomb into his car. The explosion killed his driver but only burnt shellshocked Berezovsky himself. He was hospitalised. A TV host Dorenko came immediately to make a report

Dorenko commented the assassination attempt 

"I don't believe an honest man can become that rich. Ofc Berezovsky is a criminal and fights with other criminals. That's ok. Unfortunately, normal people suffer. Imagine if some regular woman, a teacher walked nearby and was killed?"

Dorenko told: 

"Let's make a polygon where scumbags like Berezovsky will hunt each other. Let them shoot, blow up, flay each other alive and make belts out of leather. So normal people won't suffer"

Berezovsky, burnt and shellshocked, loved it:

"I need him". Dorenko was hired

Dorenko was the heavy artillery of Berezovsky. He worked closely with Voloshin who translates financial documents "on a human language" so Dorenko could understand them. In 1999 Berezovsky, now Kremlin's chief of staff Voloshin, and telekiller Dorenko cooperated to boost Putin

Consider how Dorenko drowned Primakov, by far the most popular politician in the country. He didn't *technically* attack him. He acted smarter. Primakov just had a knee surgery. So Dorenko discussed it on TV with all medical details and even broadcasted a footage of the surgery

Dorenko didn't criticize Primakov. He rather conveyed the idea that Primakov was too old and frail and thus a bad choice for the country. Even if viewers were appaled by Dorenko's take, they would still associate Primakov with the footage they saw. That undermined his election

While Surkov was pressuring  governors to join Putin, his boss Voloshin was working on a national level. Three strongest parties in Russia were Communists, Fatherland (Primakov) and Unity (Putin). Voloshin made a secret pact with Communists, so that Primakov was isolated

Once Primakov's MPs realised they will be in a minority in the Russian parliament with Unity + Communists alliance controlling everything, they started leaving Primakov en masse. Primakov's party was destroyed not so much by voters choice as by the court intrigues

The transfer of power from Yeltsin to Putin went very easily. Look at this photo of Putin's campaign staff celebrating his election as a president. You see Voloshin, chief of Yeltsin's staff and his deputy Surkov. It wasn't a real election, it was a quasimonarchical succession

After securing Putin's succession, Voloshin considered his job done. He wrote a resignation letter, stating the "transition of power in the country" as a reason and handed it to Putin. Putin smiled and put it away. He decided to keep both Voloshin and Surkov in Kremlin. End of 🧵

Cops as the true revolutionary class

I see two scenarios for the Russian Federation: positive and negative. Positive scenario would be the West maximising systemic shock on Russian economy. Its paralysis and following collapse will give the West leverage for negotiations🧵

Negotiations shouldn't be held with Putin, that's insane. He ain't stupid and knows there's no way back. They shouldn't be held with "Russian people". The idea of them rising up to overthrow Putin is even crazier, that's a Protestant moral crusade disguised as the policy making

Negotiations shouldn't be held with the army. Russian army is  emasculated. It's low in dominance hierarchy, has zero respect, autonomy or capacity for decision making. Every regime since 1917 aimed to castrate the army so it wouldn't be a threat. Putin did it most successfully

Negotiations should be held with:

1. Mid-ranked elites, primarily regional 
2. The cops

The true revolutionary force in Russia aren't "workers",  "students", or "army". It's the cops. Russia is a state security regime and cops are lower ranked security forces = *counter elite*

I wanna reiterate this point. It's absurd to think that a revolution can be done by the oppressed. Truly oppressed can't do a revolution, because they can't do anything. They can't even launch a proper revolt. They can raise only a food riot which will be easily routed

That was a major problem for Soviet historiography. Soviets regarded Muscovy and Russian Empire as feudal regimes. In feudal regime feudals are the oppressors and peasants are the oppressed. Thus in a Marxist worldview peasants would pose the major revolutionary threat there

Indeed, Russia had two gigantic rebellions in 1667—1671 and 1773–1775. Based on their Marxist paradigm, Soviets labeled them as "peasants" rebellions. Which was highly inaccurate. Both largest rebellions in Russian history were led by Cossacks - Stepan Razin and Yemelyan Pugachev

In both cases the fighting force and leadership was comprised of Cossacks. Who weren't the "oppressed" but a counterelite, challenging the rule of Russian nobility. They were aided by steppe nomads, dispossessed Muslim and Finnic nobility, religious dissidents (Old Believers) etc

Serfs helped the rebels by attacking their masters, officials, infrastructure and inflicting general chaos. But they were too disorganised and untrained to pose military threat to the regime rather than creating a fog of war. Serfs were more like a smoke screen for Cossack troops

If we look at outsiders, non-Cossacks, who made it to the core of rebellions, we can see a pattern. What remained of Razin's army was led by a Mordva murza Akai Bolyaev. He was a Volga Finn holding a Turkic title (Volga Finns were heavily Turkified like Baltic Finns Germanised)

The largest non-Cossack force participating in Pugachev's revolt were Bashkirs led by Salavat Yulaev. His family used to be privileged. They were large landowners relieved from tax (tarkhans), canton commanders. But then their land was confiscated for a factory. So they rebelled

So the pattern of largest Russian rebellions was the following. It was an alliance between the

1. Military/paramilitary counter-elite
2. Pressured and dispossessed regional elites

The latter had authority and commanded obedience in province but had grudge against the government

I also find it very interesting that both largest rebellions in Russian history were not only raised by Cossacks, but by Cossacks from the exactly same village (stanitsa) - Zimoveyskaya, now Pugachevskaya. This isn't an accident. That's the power of mythos and why memory matters

The very fact that you know that a certain guy from your village once raised an enormous rebellion and almost made it, will encourage other boys from that place to try again. Give them a sort of "permission"

Power of permission is wildly underestimated when we discuss great families that produced a number of geniuses. It's not only about genes, wealth or network. It's also about "permission". The fact that people from your reference group did something great encourages you to try too

To accomplish something you need first to try. And to try you need to be relatively high in spirit. That's why an effective way to make sure people will never even try is to keep them low in spirit. Russian government knows it and used this trick to emasculate the Russian army

The more high in spirit the army is, the more inner political threat it poses. Thus the government will make every effort to keep them low in spirit. Watch this video with TV host yelling at an officer for suggesting to have a minute of silence for soldiers killed in Ukraine

Russian soldiers are forced into gay prostitution. According to an international gay guide Spartacus, you can either pick up a soldier in Moscow city center or visit a nearby military base and choose the one you like for 100-500 usd. That's how officers & деды are hustling

Typical story. Conscript Ilya was forced into prostitution on his second month of service. He got a letter from his gf and didn't give it to sergeant to read. Angry sergeant told Ilya won't need girls anymore. That evening he was gang raped. Later, they would sell him to clients

Everyone fears glorious Russian army. And yet, Russian organised crime considers it as prey. Thieves literally visit military bases with nuclear rockets, Syrian war veterans and racketeer them. Officers and men pay of course. Thief is higher than a soldier in dominance hierarchy

Westerners find stories with mafia racketeering the army incredible, impossible to believe in. They sound to absurd and remind Anglos of a Monty Python sketch. The very idea of mafia racketeering the army (including war veterans) and army paying sounds unnatural. Because it is

Incredibly low status of Russian army isn't natural. That's a deliberate plan to keep them low in spirit. If their status rises, they would become a counter elite. And army is a very dangerous counter elite, Russian rulers would prefer not to have. So they eliminate this threat

Of course any elite would prefer not to have counter elite at all. But that's impossible. If you eliminate any outer rivals, it just means you'll get a counter elite within your regime. Communist Party destroyed any rivals in the USSR. That's why KGB turned into the counter elite

Putin's FSB regime worked hard on eliminating any outer threat in the country. They destroyed or subjugated all other forces in Russia: political parties, oligarchs, governors, etc. As a result Russian state security regime is unchallenged from outside - there's no one left

Thus it will be challenged from inside. The problem is that Russian state security is not homogenous. There are many security forces within it and their status is highly unequal. Broadly speaking, FSB is higher nobility while cops are lower nobility. Elite and counter elite 

That's extremely important. The factor of status competition within the elite and within the regime is wildly underrated. And yet, this may be *the* main force of literally any social and political changes. To change sth you need to harness elite forces by giving them incentives

That's exactly what Putin did. Back in 1990s FSB used to be the lower nobility. Its status, salaries, privileges were far below other security agencies - SVR, FSO, FAPSI and ofc the true aristocracy - The Presidential Security Service led by Korzhakov, the top silovik of the era

When Putin was appointed an FSB director, he was unknown, not very much respected chief of a lower status security structure. Even his own officers didn't hold him in high regard. He knew it. To renegotiate the balance of power he needed to renegotiate the elite hierarchy

That's why he immediately started rising the FSB status. He raised its salaries, its benefits, its privileges to SVR and FSO level. He knew the FSB wants to rise and he needed to harness this natural force for his own benefit. He gave them salt

Putin harnessed the FSB urge to rise and raised them. Other security agencies were either subjugated or dissolved completely like FAPSI. Lower nobility became higher nobility and that was the main driver of Putin's power consolidation, not the gibberish about "national revival"

Intellectuals focus too much on discourse. "Great Russia", "Orthodoxy", "democracy", "Western values". That's not wrong, but I would suggest other way to look at it. How would you re-negotiate the power balance? Which counterelite forces will you harness to make a change?

Words are great, but honestly neurotypical ppl don't care about words, only autists do. Normal healthy people just do whatever they like and find convenient and then rationalise, make up a justification why this was the only right moral choice to make. They can be very creative

Rule of thumb: lower nobility hates higher nobility. They aren't dumb and won't tell it publicly, but privately, in between, that's *the* main topic of their conversation when higher nobility isn't around. Lower nobility wants to become higher nobility, eliminating the higher ups

Don't think as an ideologue, think like an entrepreneur. According to Schumpeter, innovation is either employment of new factors of production or a new combination of existing ones. You can't create a new order from your head as Brahma, you must rearrange the existing one

Don't used the God-mindset, use a startup mindset. How can we rearrange existing Russian order? Which *already existing* political factors can we employ, or how can we rearrange employed ones? That would make a sociopolitical innovation and ideological gibberish won't

My advice. Negotiate with the lower nobility which has direct power and is somewhat high in spirit. That includes:

1. Mid-ranked, primarily regional elites
2. Cops

Give them salt. Will elaborate next time. End of 🧵

My long reads gonna be stored here

https://kamilkazani.substack.com

Military casualties in Ukraine and the end of Russia as we know it

Let's look on the list of killed Russian generals:

Major-General Suhovetsky
Major-General Gerasimov
Major-General Kolesnikov
Major-General Mityayev
Lieutenant-General Mordvichev
Major-General Tushaev (Chechen)🧵

Not counting a Chechen general Tushaev, who's an officer of Kadyrov's personal army, Mordvichev was the highest ranked Russian general killed so far. He was a commander of 8th Guard Army of the Southern Military District (=close to Ukraine)

Groups of Russian military in social media look like a never-ending list of necrologies. Consider this group of Russian airborne VDV. A captain, a colonel-lieutenant, first lieutenant, general-major are all dead. Notice they're listing only officers, including high ranked ones

Let's go to comments. A deputy commander of an airborne regiment is killed. The first comment with Z avatar:

"My God 😭😭 Are they gonna bring us half of the regiment in coffins. Every day we see regiment 331. Condolescences 🙏 to family and friends. Eternal memory and glory"

Notice Z: its author fully supports Z-operation. And yet, she's shocked by the scale of casualties. Apparently even for Z-folk the endless stream of coffins from Ukraine looks disheartening. That's why trucks with dead and wounded Russian soldiers typically show up only at night

Consider that this all is happening in a quickly depopulating country which is growing old. Russia has few youths to send to Ukraine. Russia is now a pensionary country and it's fasicsm is pensionary fascism. Specifically babushka fascism - there aren't so may grampas around

They're urgently trying to lure whomever to the army. These are listings on Avito. Avito is a classified advertisements website, kinda Craigslist. There you can find jobs, real estate, cars and whatever for sale, services, etc. They're using every channel to boost recruitment

Some advertisments are aimed at imbeciles. A recruitment station is inviting people to join "reserve". They'll be paid only for manouvers: Officers - up to 10 000 roubles for 3 days, sergeants and soldiers - up to 5 000 rubles. Broke idiots who join gonna be sent to Ukraine

For 30 days of maneovers they're offering 30-75 000 rubles to officers. Before the war it was 500-1000 usd. Sergeants and soldiers would get 150-400 usd. Russian army is luring the brokes paying them almost nothing. That's important to keep in mind

There are also unconfirmed news that Russia will send to Ukraine adolescents from Юнармия - the Youth Army. That's a patriotic  paramilitary organisation. I can't confirm that's true but with situation worsening they might. Sending there conscripts is illegal and they still do

Z-war heavily relies on minorities. That's understandable. First of all, there are not so many young Russian males to send, so you need to target minorities with higher fertility. Second, affluent will dodge so you send broke ones. Here you Siberian natives killed in Ukraine

Participation of North Caucasians is even higher than that. This cafe in Dagestan feeds families of Z-soldiers for free. Reportedly, Samilksy District of Dagestan with population of 29868 people sent 500 guys to fight to Ukraine. Soldiers, cops, National Guard whomever

That's quite ironic. Russian nationalist expansion in Ukraine heavily relies on people who are not considered fully human from the Russia perspectives. They are called хачи, чурки, обезьяны (apes) and yet they provide a huge share of recruits for Z-war

We must distinguish Chechnya from the rest of Caucasus. Dagestan or Ingush serve in Russian army like everyone else. In military terms they're regulars. But Chechnya is a kingdom of Kadyrov and Chechen army, police, FSB etc are his personal army. Watch this video, feel the vibe

When you look at Kadyrov's forces in Ukraine, you can see how clean they are, how fresh, not tired at all. They're heavily burdened with equipment. Why? Because they're terror and PR troops who try to skip the fighting. They're to police, torture, keep control, not to fight

Compare those Kadyrov's cyborgs with Chechen mujahideen of the First Chechen War. You clearly see a difference. Men who actually fought tried to dress lightly, take less burden and equipment. They were also quite dirty from the fight, unlike shining show-off troops of Kadyrov

Strelkov confirms it:

"In Mariupol Chechens didn't enter the battle. Why?

- Chechens are too darling to our commanders
- Someone has to pose for the victory photos. Chechens are fresh, masculine, jacked, gonna look great
- Commanders fear Kadyrov's anger for Chechen casualties"

Kadyrov's troops are not for fighting. They'd rather skip it. They're for keeping control, making PR and ofc torturing. Have a look at this video how Kadyrov's soldier makes a captured Ukrainian shout "Ахмат - сила" (Ahmad strong). Ahmad - is the name of Kadyrov's father

How will these casualties impact Russian society? Well, Russian fascism is pensionary, babushka fascism. Media are crying how sanctions will hurt poor babushkas forgetting that babushkas are *the* main electorate of Putin. This demographic group supports Z most enthusiastically

Watch this video endorsing Z-invasion. It issued by an organisation called "Putin's troops" - отряды Путина. It gives you a good glimpse of Putin's electoral base. People imagine Russia as a "bear", hard, determined, bestial power. In fact Russia is insane warmongering babushka

There is however a problem. First, insane warmongering babushkas who comprise the bulk of electorate support Z. But it's not them who's gonna fight and die. It's the youth who are much less enthusiastic. Compare this anti-war protest demographics with that of "Putin's troops"

There's another problem. Look at these funerals in regional capital of Vladimir. They're burying the entire leadership of Vladimir SOBR, all four their lieutenant colonels. SOBR is a branch of National Guard dealing with the organised crime. And they're being massacred in Ukraine

This may be a huge consequence of this war. Ukrainian War may provide a final solution of the Siloviki question. Siloviki are police, state security, intelligence and other paramilitary. This "new nobility" as their chief called them are the real source of Putin's power

Ask yourself, why elites do even obey Putin? Why barons submit to the courtiers? Well, because if they disobey Putin gonna "send a doctor". Here Moscow siloviki are arresting Khabarovsk governor Furgal who didn't forge the election in Putin's favor

Russia is a vast and very unequal country. Socio-economic and other parameters of its regions vary greatly. Putin enforced obedience, but enforced it by brutal violence. Russian siloviki whom he directly subordinated to Moscow terrorised barons, making them obey to Kremlin

Putin's reign of terror was largely motivated by objective limitations. Here you see Russia divided into three zones, red, blue & white, with almost equal population - 48,9 million. Which means key economic regions of Siberia are unthinkably remote from Russian population centres

That's why Putin had to use rely on sheer force so heavily. In a country like Russia courtiers have to use a lot of force to keep barons at check, there's no other way. And these siloviki guys were the main tool of Kremlin: arms of the courtiers used to control the barons

And here they go. This is not a funeral of Russian soldiers nor of the SOBR leadership. It's the funerals of Putin's regime and of Russia as we know it. Very soon barons will have almost no reason for obedience. Balance of power within elites gonna be renegotiated. End of 🧵

If you like to read my long reads, you can subscribe to my Substack https://kamilkazani.substack.com

Why Russia can't win against the West

Russia is often portrayed as the invincible military power. And yet, this reputation is based on two wars - Napoleonic and WWII. In both cases Russia won only thanks to the alliance allied with *the* leading economic powerhouse of that era🧵

Napoleonic Wars were won only because of the Russian alliance with the UK. WWII - only because of the alliance with the US. In both cases the leading economic, industrial and technological power of the age supported Russia, giving it almost unlimited credit and supply line 

Let's start with the WWII. Early Bolsheviks were absolutely fascinated by America and its industrial power. The last movie Vladimir Lenin watched before his death was the video recording from the Ford assembly lines in Detroit. They dreamed of emulating the American industrialism

Soviet industrialisation is portrayed as the "competition" with the capitalist West. It is a lie. In fact, it was a meticulous emulation of American industrialism. America built Soviet industrial power. American companies, technologies, engineers made the USSR a powerhouse 

Most of technological transfer from to the US to the USSR was personaly supervised by Saul Bron. Born in Odessa in 1887, he earned his PhD in Economics at the University of Zurich. After the revolution he became the key figure of Soviet economic policy, specifically foreign trade

Saul Bron was the member of the Supreme Economic Council and CEO of many state owned companies. He headed the Exportkhleb - a company for the grain export to the West and the Bank for Foreign Trade Vneshtorgbank. He supervised most of Soviet trade with the capitalist countries 

When Stalin picked up Mikoyan as the commissar for foreign trade, Mikoyan was hesitant and not sure if he could manage it. Then Stalin assured him he would dispatch some experienced people, especially Saul Bron, who could “boost any commissariat”

In 1920s USSR wasn't recognized by the US and thus couldn't negotiate directly. And yet, a number of DC establishment like Senator William Borah, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, had favorable views of the USSR. So some sort of proxy trade was possible

The main proxy for Soviet-American trade was the Amtorg Trading Corporation established in 1924 as a result of merger of a few companies including another quasi private entity Arcos America (Arcos was Soviet proxy for trade with the UK led by  Krasin - I'll elaborate next time)

In 1927 Stalin appointed Saul Bron as the CEO of Amtorg Trading Corporation. Theoretically Amtorg was an American corporation. In practice though it was a Soviet proxy controlled by Politburo. It was a monopoly controlling all the Soviet-American trade

As the head of Amtorg, Saul Bron would personally look for and choose American partners who would help with the Soviet industrialization. One of Bron's first findings was a Detroit industrial architect Albert Kahn - here you see them signing a contract 

In 1929 Albert Kahn Associates secure a mega contract on designing and supervising construction of the Stalingrad tractor plant. It was modeled after the International Harvester Milwaukee plant. Kahn prepared architectural and engineering drawings including road & railroad access

Kahn company fully organised the entire process. They procured American materials, machinery, and equipment, provided American experts. To put it simply, Stalingrad tractor plant was LEGO. Details were produced in America and assembled in the USSR under the American supervision

The Stalingrad tractor plant was assembled from the details and machinery prefabricated in the US and shipped by the sea. Kahn  provided the key personnel - construction supervisors, installation specialists, foremen. It was built from American details and installed by Americans 

All the heating, plumbing, welding & electrical works were supervised by Americans. For every 20-30 Soviet workers there was an American foreman. The Traktorstroi recruitment office on 255 West Congress Street, Detroit provided most of the qualified workforce for Stalingrad plant

"Structural steel elements were prefabricated in New York by McClintic-Marshall Products (Bethlehem Steel Corp), shipped in a knock-down state to Stalingrad, via Black Sea and Volga, then assembled under the supervision of American builders and engineers selected by Kahn’s firm"

Kahn Associates commissioned over 100 American companies with supplying and assisting the construction. All the building materials, equipment and tools were American produced. Kahn even designed a special railroad to bring materials from Stalingrad docks to the construction site

In 1941 and 1942 Stalingrad tractor plant would be the main producer of famous T-34 tanks which contributed so much into the Soviet victory. T-34 is glorified as the example of Soviet engineering genius. Not wrong. But it was assembled on American-built plants and infrastructure

Next year they scaled up. In 1930 Kahn was commissioned to design and supervise almost all Soviet industrial construction under the first & second Five Year Plans: more than 550 plants & facilities all over the USSR, all Soviet tank, car & tractor industry, etc for 2 billion usd

Of course mass involvement of American architects and engineers in Soviet industrialisation looked problematic. That's why it was disguised. USSR established an enormous government architecture bureau Госпроектстрой as a cover for American experts who lived and worked in the USSR

Initially the work was conducted from the Detroit office. Later, much of it was transferred to Moscow office where it was done with assistance of the Soviet staff whom Americans instructed and supervised. Here you see Moritz Kahn and his engineers departing to the USSR in 1930

Kahn engineers operated all over the USSR building "tractor, car, aircraft power plants, foundries, forges, steelmaking and rolling mills; metallurgical, ball-bearing, aluminum, asbestos plants; machinery and tools manufacturing factories; textile mills, food processing plants"

Soon they built bigger plants in Kharkiv and Chelyabinsk. That's a group of Soviet engineers at Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant office in Detroit, 1930. Kahn allowed great flexibility of production, making the plant "more universal" = not only for civil but also for military production

Kahn knew he's helping USSR to prepare for a war. In 1931 he told:

"There is no question about Russia’s preparing herself as fully as possible for such an event, nor is there any doubt that many of the newer plants are planned for the production of war materials when needed"

That's a partial list of some largest plants Kahn designed. After Kahn engineers departed, they left their blueprints, calculations, and specifications. They left-American trained Soviet experts who could use these models and emulate them with minimal changes (привязка)

While Albert Kahn was the main planner of Soviet industrialization, hundreds of companies participated. Arthur McKee company designed and supervised construction of the largest Soviet steel plant in Magnitogorsk, modelled after the U.S. Steel Corporation plant in Gary, Indiana

Henry Ford participated, too. Here you see him negotiating with the Amtorg Chief Saul Bron. In 1929 he signed a contract to build a GAZ vehicle factory in Nizhny Novgorod, supply it with equipment, machinery and technologies


Here you see a Colonel Hugh Lincoln Cooper, of the US Army Corps of Engineers, standing in from of the greatest construction project of Stalin - Dnieproges hydrolectric dam. Colonel Cooper was its chief construction consultant, supervising the entire process

Now you make ask, ok, how did the USSR pay for all of it? Technological import from the US should have cost hella lots of money. Well, that's why Stalin had to milk his people dry. To pay for import, he exported all the food abroad. That's the reason of mass starvation, Holodomor

In 1930 Stalin had to pay to Caterpillar Inc for equipment and wrote to Molotov: 

"We need to increase grain exports from 1-1,5 to 3-4 million puds a day minimum. Otherwise we are risking to lose new metallurgy and machinery plants. We need to ferociously бешено enforce export"

That was the main reason of Holodomor. To build his military power Stalin relied on technological import. To pay for this import, he took all teh food and sold it abroad. Millions starved as a result. Entire districts dying out, mass cannibalism and so on were the price of import

Ok, you may ask, but what happened with all these American-trained, American-connected managers and engineers? They would be a tool of American softpower? Yep. Exactly for this reason they were cleansed en masse in 1937-1938, during the Great Purge. Including Saul Bron of course

The narrative of "autarkic" and "self-sufficient" USSR is total BS. Soviet Industrialisation fully relied on American assistance, expertise and the technological import. And even with it all, USSR *still* didn't become self-sufficient. It had so many technological bottlenecks

One of these bottlenecks was fuel.  USSR had Azerbaijani oil, but couldn't produce the high-octane aviation fuel. Its own production covered only 4% of Б-78 fuel necessary for its modern Як-1, Як-3, МиГ-3, ЛаГГ-3, Ил-2, Ил-4, Пе-2, Ер-2, Су-2 military planes

The USSR had no problem with producing low octane aviation fuel for the obsolete fighter and bombers like this fighter И-15 called "the flying coffin" by those unfortunates who had to use it. Meanwhile, modern Soviet aviation fully relied on imported fuel

Why? Some argue that this was a result of negligence. I however, have a conspiracy theory. I suspect that when building Soviet industry Americans might purposefully include there a number of bottlenecks and limitations. Soviet army was fully functional only as an American ally

Consider the following. Spend a day googling the papers on industrial archaeology and you'll find tons of American projects on building Soviet "tractor" (=tank), car, metallurgy and many other plants. But I failed to find a single mention of Americans building Soviet Navy

Did the Soviets want a Navy? Sure they did. In 1932 they accepted a "big fleet" program, designing and constructing big battleships. But now they unironically had to it on their own. Americans didn't help at all. Soviets build ships on Tsar's shipyards with their own technologies

As a result very expensive Soviet Navy was super dysfunctional. In 1943 Stalin prohibited a battleships larger than a minesweeper to leave their bases without personal order. As a result most of Soviet battleships simply stayed there till 1945. Stalin's navy was largely useless

Why wouldn't Soviets secure American assistance for the navy as they did for the army? I don't any evidence. But I suspect that Americans wouldn't provide help with building a force that could potentially endanger them. They prepared the USSR for the continental war and that's it

Let's sum up. All the narrative about the "autarkic" USSR is BS. Soviet Union wasn't autarkic and modern Russia is even less so. It's totally dependent upon technological import. 

Soviet industrialisation was real and successful. But it was managed from abroad and had a number of (purposefully? I've no evidence though) built bottlenecks that made USSR a very fragile power. It couldn't fight a major war on its own, too many bottlenecks

Stalin might not realise that immediately. He might have believed in his power and invincibility. The war started 22 June 1941 and only on 29 June Stalin realised how badly it's going. So on July 6 general Golikov flew to London to secure lend lease, beg for the US help

And Americans did help. They covered all the Soviet needs, supplied it with food, equipment, explosives (I know that sounds funny, but explosives production was a major Soviet bottleneck for some reason), vehicles. See American Steudebakers shipped to the USSR

This might explain Hitler's decision to launch the war with the USSR. He correctly understood the military aspect of the war. He was right that the German strike would destroy the Soviet economy. Indeeed, by August 1941 they broke Soviet supply and technological chains completely

What Hitler didn't understand however, is that Americans would fully, 100%, cover all Soviet needs in everything, from food to trucks, from high octane fuel to explosives. Hitler couldn't know that the US would put the USSR on an emergency life support apparatus

Russia is not self-sufficient and it never was. It's not so much an evil empire as a Trade Federation, dependent on technological import from the West and export of natural resources. That's why every major war without Western allies ended in catastrophe like Crimean or Livonian

Now Russia is going full Livonian War scenario. This will again end with поруха, the disarray, and eventually with the Time of Troubles. I'll cover the new institutional trends in Russia in my next thread

And yet, the question may arise. Why Russia is so technologically dependent? Why despite having great technological expertise it fails to produce competitive products of its own? I'll outline my view on this in a future text "Why Russia didn't produce Bayraktars". End of🧵

Regarding the Albert Kahn and Saul Bron stories I relied on brilliant papers by Sonia Melnikova-Raich which I absolutely recommend. That's part I on Albert Kahn, there's also a part II on Saul Bron

If you like reading my longreads, you can subscribe to my  substack https://kamilkazani.substack.com

And of course if you want to support my work, I'll be grateful for donations, be it in crypto or in fiat - posted all the links here https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1504152993553342464

Is World War Z popular in Russia?

80 000 ppl attended Z-rally in Moscow. Midwits compared its size with smaller anti-war protests and concluded it's a proof of mass Z-enthusiasm. Midwits are unable to comprehend two factors that rule this world: leverage and incentives 🧵

Journalist is asking Z-attendees "Friends, wanna give a small comment - what does this day mean for you?" They turn away in silence. He insists - they shake their heads and refuse to answer. Finally he asks - why did you come? Response "They pushed us into a bus and brought here"

When looking at Z-rallies in Russia you need to understand they're all 100% staged. Putin suppresses any independent political action and won't allow any protest either pro- or against war. Russian nationalists who are trying to do Z-rallies are arrested and threatened with jail

Kremlin allows only one single type of rallies - the ones which it orchestrated. Putin doesn't want any enthusiasts. That makes sense. If you have convictions, you may support Putin out of conviction. But it also means you may fight Putin out of convictions. You are dangerous

Putin wants only controllable people who do whatever they are told. He promotes such people o all positions of power, which  explains poor Russian performance in economy, war, technology, etc. This also explains why he forces unenthusiastic people to political rallies

The main tool for filling pro-government rallies in Russia is сгон бюджетников - pressing the government employees. Government forces university, vocational school ПТУ and other students, school teachers, doctors, civil servants and whoever is on payroll to come to rallies

This for example is a public protest of an independent teachers' union Учитель. In 2014 teachers were forced to participate in demonstrations in support of the Donbass War and annexation of Crimea, and the union protested against it. You can find dozens of such publications

And this is a WhatsApp chat message. Administration forces teachers to collect school kids letters, paintings and posters in support of Z-invasion of Ukraine

This may be the most creative illustration of how they use administrative resource to demonstrate support of Z-campaign. They forced terminally ill children from hospice and their parents to form a Z-letter, supporting the invasion

How does сгон бюджетников work in practice? You command people on government's payroll to come to pick up point. You put them on a bus and drive them to Moscow. When the rally is over, you put them on a bus and drive home. This time they brought people from as far as Smolensk

If you think about it, it makes total sense. These people don't want to come, they are bored, want to go home. They don't do anything stupid, don't network. If you brought real enthusiasts they would network which is super dangerous. You just need to feed them and put onto a bus

Huge size of pro-war rallies is explained by government fully using its leverage and incentives to make people come. They literally order this school to bring 50 people, that civil service office to bring 100 and will fire the boss if he doesn't fill the quota of fake protesters

Yekaterinburg. This woman says she supports the Z-operation (though standing with the poster "for peace"). However, when asked why did she come she responded - they asked us and we came

The only articulate statement in support of the war I've seen so far. She is very happy Putin restored the authority of the country and thinks that display of Russian flags is very patriotic

This is a more typical case:

- Why did you come here?
- They called us
- Did they tell where you are going
- No, they said it will be some event, that's all

Some Z-supporters express even less enthusiasm and run away from cameras. They lool very uncomfortable and probably ashamed of attending the pro war rally

On the other hand, government uses its leverage to discourage people from protesting against the war. Here police breaks the door of Timur Tuhvatullin to arrest. He's accused of "inciting the mass riots" 

Police are searching the homes of those who signed an open letter, condemning the Z-war - designer Anna Kantser, activist Gulnaz Ravilova and politician Russian Zinatullin. They had to open the door after police started cutting it

They started a criminal investigation against Liberman, a philosophy teacher of Kazan university who wrote an open letter condemning the war and started collecting students, professors and alumni signatures under it

Tons of people arrested for protesting against the war. All of prisons and detention centres in Moscow and nearby, like Saharovo, are full with people. Now they are treated much harsher than before. Last year they didn't typically beat arrested people, now they do

At this point things didn't get that bad yet. For example this guy who spit on Z letter will be just fined between 30 000 - 50 000 rubles. However, now, after Putin declared that society should "self-clean" such acts might entail far harsher consequences

This sort of explains why we see so much public support of Z-war and so little condemnation of it. Government uses leverage and incentives to promote the former and suppress the latter. This quite cringe propaganda video explains it much better than I could. Watch it. End of 🧵

Here I am planning to store my threads and other texts https://kamilkazani.substack.com

How to sabotage Russian war efforts?

There are ways to sabotage Russian war capacities by focusing on its three major bottlenecks: demographic, economic & institutional. Let's start with demography. Russian started this war suffering from the shortage of young draftable males🧵

That's a very underrated fact. Many argue that the demographic pressure of growing population (Africa, Middle East) increases a risk of war/revolution. But Russia doesn't have this pressure. Compare it's demographic pyramid with Syria: Russia's quickly depopulating. It grew old

In fact, Russian-Ukrainian war is may be the first major war between two quickly depopulating nations. For this reason it can't be directly compared to Iran-Iraq or other conventional wars between relatively big but young powers. Russia, Ukraine are both old. Few youngsters there

Russian performance in this war will be different from the past. Yes, before WWII Russia would fight real wars all the time. But back then Russia was younger. Its demographic pyramid of 1927 looks more like Syria than like modern Russia

Today an average age in Russia 40 years. In 1914 in the age of huge families and no family planning it was 16 years old. Russia was a country of adolescents much like Black Africa is today. This demographic pressure might explain excesses of revolution and civil war of 1917-1921

Before the revolution birth control was virtually unknown, almost all of Russian population rural, people were subsistence farmers and their families tend to be very big. Thus Russia had a constant excess of youth which its emperors could utilise for their imperial delusions



XX century put end to this. Death toll of collectivisation, purges, and the WWII was devastating. Consider this photo of public street dances in late 1940s. Girls are dancing together, cuz boys are dead. From the high school class of 1941 only 3% were alive by the end of the war

Even more important factors were industrialisation and urbanisation. In 1900 majority were substinence farmers living in their own houses. By 1960s they were waged workers living in small urban dorms. Both mom and dad had to work, birth control was available. Fertility dropped

That's what believers in based invincible Russia which always wins miss completely. Back then Russia was a country with Syria-style population pyramid and produced enough young males to sacrifice in endless conflicts. Young men were not a bottleneck. Now they are

That partially explains why Putin attacked Ukraine with such a small army and didn't immediately start mobilisation. There are not so many males to mobilise in the first place. Meanwhile Ukrainian-published videos of captured conscripts will damage the Putin's spring draft a lot

Now who fights in Putin's army? Well, that's pretty easy to answer. Most of file and rank of the Russian army are either current or former conscripts. They are young guys from small towns and usually underprivileged background. Richer, more privileged ones would dodge the draft

In a good Moscow school where I studied almost everyone dodged the draft. Those who were drafted were considered very unlucky or not that smart. Nobody would ever view those going to the army with respect. Draft was a misfortune, a bad accident, you should avoid

Those who get into the army are usually from poor families & small towns. Because richer/smarter/educated ones dodge it. Then these conscripts who don't know their rights will be persuaded, pressured or just forced to sign a contract and become контрактники professional soldier

So in the social dimension, Russian army is the army of poor guys from small towns. Their recruitment was conducted either by sheer force (призывники) or by a certain combination of force and persuasion (контрактники). Sometimes they just force conscripts to sign the contract

In the ethnic dimension it's even more interesting than that. With ethnic Russians quickly depopulating, minorities provide disproportionally high share of young draftable males. And I'm not talking about Kadyrov's troops

Chechnya is a vassal kingdom of Kadyrov in personal union with Russia. It's not an integral part of Russia and its troops are not  part of Russian army.Chechen conscript don't go to Russian army, they go to its "Chechen regiments" which are led by and personally loyal to Kadyrov

Once again - Kadyrov's troops can have whatever BS bureaucratic labels - "army", "police", "FSB", etc. But being classified as parts of these branches of Russian regulars they're obedient only to their warlord. I described it here in more detailed way https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497612331953577991

I'm talking about normal Russian regulars. While Chechen conscripts go to "Russian regiments quartered in Chechnya" = private army of Kadyrov, Dagestani, Ingush, Kabarda and other minority conscripts go to regular Russian army and comprise every growing part of it

Consider this random list of wounded Russian soldiers in a hospital in Rostov Oblast (=wounded in Ukraine). Dagestani names comprise about a half of the list. Russian army is quickly becoming the army of minorities

Furthermore, I'm now getting a lot of messages from Central Asians whom authorities try to persuade/force into the army. It's not some sort of ideological decision. In a quickly depopulating country you have no choice but to impress immigrants there to keep the war going

Let's sum up. In the past, Russia launched huge continental wars and finished them at whatever cost. But it could pay this cost because in a country of huge peasant families and constant excess of youth they could easily sacrifice that youth for the sake of imperial grandeur