This is the story of the Emperor who 'played the fiddle while Rome burned'...

Emperor Claudius was the 4th Roman emperor, ruling from AD 41-54. His reign was marked by expansive changes in the Roman Empire.

But his personal life often overshadowed his political works. Emperor Claudius married 4 times in his lifetime.

His last marriage was to his own niece, Agrippina the Younger.

Agrippina was very ambitious and politically astute.

She gave birth to a boy- Nero & had him married to Octavia (one of Emperor Claudius’s daughter).

She pushed for Nero to be declared heir over Emperor Claudius' biological son.

The Emperor finally relented & after his death Nero became the Emperor of the Roman Empire.

Agrippina acted as Nero’s guide.

She made political decisions & even featured on Roman coins, which was unheard of at the time.

Nero, however, did not like his mother's interference & had her killed in 59 AD.

After having his mother killed, Nero had his ‘Juvenilia’.

It was a ceremony commemorating his shaving his beard for the first time. The practice was indicative of boys stepping into manhood.

The Juvenilia involved the production and performance of Greek-style plays and theatrical performances. It made him extremely popular with the masses.

This popularity was short lived. Some yrs after the Juvenilia, a great fire engulfed the city of Rome.

It burned for over 7 days  before subsiding; it then started again and burned for 3 more.

Rumours flew around that the fire was actually arson, carried out on behalf of Nero.

It was suggested that he wanted to create space for a new castle that he wanted to build for himself. There were also murmurs of Nero playing the fiddle while Rome burned.

To quell these rumours, Nero accused Christians of starting the fire.

Christians in the city were crucified, “burnt like torches”, and hunted. Nero is said to have enjoyed their persecution.

This event marked the beginning of the end of Nero's reign.

His profligacy during the reconstruction of Rome, forced his govt to increase taxation.

Nero also had to devalue the Roman currency to fund Rome's reconstruction. It caused inflation for the first time in the Empire's history.

All this gave the Roman Senate a perfect excuse to overthrow him. They already looked down upon him for his love for acting and theatre.

So in 68 AD, the Senate finally declared Nero a public enemy.

Fearing for his life, Nero fled and eventually took his own life.

His last words were reported to be, “Oh what an artist dies with me!”

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Fiddler of Rome

If you live in #Delhi-NCR & are hard-pressed to find #Amul butter, you aren't the only one.

Here's why Amul is facing supply issues...

#Amul is a co-operative that is managed & marketed by Gujarat Co-operative Milk Marketing Federation (GCMMF)

Its MD, R S Sodhi, says that a better-than-expected Diwali led to a surge in demand.

Certain distribution centres did not anticipate the sudden demand spike, leading to temporary crunch, followed by further panic buying.

In case of other products, the answer would've been to simply increase production. But that's easier said than done in the case of butter...

In a @bsindia report, Mr Sodhi explained the reasons behind this shortfall,

"... of all the milk fat generated from milk procurement, 60% goes for liquid milk, the rest for other products, including butter. We have always prioritised liquid milk production...

... when demand for it rose, we reallocated milk fat for more milk production. As a result, we couldn’t quickly ramp up butter production at the same time."

Some industry insiders say that the shortage could be due to an outbreak of the lumpy skin disease as well.

The disease caused cattle deaths in many states & #Gujarat was one of the worst affected states.

Whatever the reason/s be, the shortage of Amul butter is still going to remain for some time.
Many restaurants/houses have shifted to alternatives in the mkt for the time being.

Will it affect Amul's business in the long term?

Experts don't think so & see it as a temporary blip. Any temporary scarcity won’t hit its perennial market share. Any other player in the market is a distant No. 2

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Utterly Butterly... Scarce

This is the story of #Modi govt's own Billion$ #startup, a unicorn unlike any other.

An yr after coming to power in 2014, #PMModi had famously remarked,
"The industry of red tape thrives on doubt, while the road with a red carpet is built on trust."

This quote reflected a change in mindset of the Govt of #India. Up until now, businesses were always looked with a sceptical eye.

But this was about to change.

The most instrumental player in brining this change was a semi-autonomous corporation, Invest India.

Founded in 2009, it was a 49:51 joint venture b/w GoI & #FICCI

In the initial yrs, nothing significant happened.
Invest India was a mostly forgotten initiative of building an Investment Promotion Agency (IPA) for the country.

Right around the time #PMModi made that remark about red carpet, Invest India's fortune also turned for the better.

In 2015, states were made equity partners.
By 2017, private equity was shared b/w #FICCI, #CII & #Nasscom

With the focus of the govt on facilitating business, Invest India became the 1st point of contact for all MNCs.

Its job was to hand-hold every MNC in order to make their experience as smooth as possible.
It did everything for them- from location search to showing them the opportunity to getting all approvals.

Another strategy employed by them was to look at 'anchor' investments.
Meaning, if a mobile manufacturer wants to make in India, Invest India will try to get the entire supply chain for that mobile manufacturer in #India.

As states were also equity partners now, Invest India also worked with them to present their cases to the MNCs.

In Karnataka, this led to the devlt of country corridors—a Japanese industrial township in Tumakuru, & a Taiwan industrial park in Devanahalli.

Besides handling MNCs, the company also handles the #StartupIndia campaign of the govt.

Here, its expertise in handling MNCs comes in handy as it helps startups get in touch with venture capitals from abroad & vice versa.
1mg, before being acquired by #Tata, was helped in its initial stage by the company.

Today, Invest India alone has been instrumental in getting investments worth 3 lakh crore ($33 billion)

It has helped create 450,000 jobs, supported 81,000+ startups & facilitated 1,323 investment projects.

Invest India is now working on getting in a total of 16 lakh crore ($196 billion) worth of investment.

It is no wonder that the company is touted as a unicorn of the #ModiGovt

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Red carpet

The #G7 has put a price cap on #Russia crude oil exports. What does it mean for #India? 👇 🧵

The #G7 is a group of countries comprising of #Canada, #France, #Germany, #Italy, #Japan, #UK and the #UnitedStates

Together, they've put a price cap of $60 on Russian crude oil. The goal is 2 fold-

1) Ensure Russian oil supply to global mkt, to prevent a supply shock
2) Weaken Russia's profit & thus weaken its war effort in #Ukraine

How will it work?

1) #G7 countries will phase out their dependence on #Russian crude
2) #EU countries to follow suit
3) Rest, like China, India will use the price cap to negotiate lower deals for themselves

To make it effective, European shipping & insurance companies are prohibited from shipping cargoes of Russian crude at/above price cap.

Why only European companies?
Because they're responsible for transporting a majority chunk of Russian crude across the globe.

What effects will this have on #India?

Not much. India, atm, is importing crude from Russia on prices almost on par with the price cap. No change is expected on that front.

However, in case #Russia increases its price beyond $60 things could go wrong.

The absence of European shipping & insurance will cause major problems.

As per a @bsindia report, India imports 90% of its crude on Western tankers & insurance.

Russia only has 70 tankers & India's private companies & PSUs import roughly around 10%

This will make importing crude from Russia extremely difficult. As large import orders w/o insurance & adequate ships is extremely risky.

#India for its part has not shown any indication for joining the price cap. Observers believe that the 2 countries will prob keep prices mutually agreeable.

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Oil Oil Oil...

Things are not looking good for #Amazon in India. Here's why...

In the past few months, the company has laid off several 100 employees in India & shut down its edtech, food delivery business.

Along with that, it has also shut its B2B online platform.

The exit from wholesale #ecommerce & distribution means that Amazon is giving up the battle with #Flipkart Wholesale & Reliance’s JioMart.

The online B2B marketplace in India is estimated to grow to a $90 Bn-$100 Bn opportunity by 2030.

Amazon’s retreat is a major signal about its ability to compete for this pie.

All of this has happened in the same yr when #Amazon lost Future Retail and Metro Cash & Carry to #Reliance

This is not just a simple case of #Amazon cutting its losses & a few bids not working out.

#Amazon is also not earning enough.

Since its entry in the Indian mkt, the company is yet to turn profitable. In the meantime, they've invested over $6.5 Bn

It lags behind Flipkart in the B2C space in terms of market share.
New entrants like Reliance, #Tata etc have further complicated matters.

Newer players like the Softbank funded #Meesho ($5 Bn GMV) are winning the faster growing Tier 2/3 cities.

As per a Redseer report, Meesho beat Amazon in the 2022 festive season #sales, while Flipkart topped the list .

Amazon India is also facing heat from regulators. There are allegations that Amazon prefers certain sellers on its platforms.

Some of its biggest sellers like Cloudtail & Appario are backed by Amazon. Cloudtail, although has been shut down.

There are also accusations of Amazon copying products of retail brands for its private label business.

These allegations have been investigated by the Competition Commission of India & other agencies over the past two years.

Regulatory hurdles + intense competition has made life difficult for #Amazon in #India. What do you think Amzon should do? Do share your thoughts.

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B/w a rock & a hard place

e-rupee or the Central Bank Digital Currency (#CBDC) is a legal tender issued by the Reserve Bank of India.

It will be in the form of a digital token representing a claim on the #RBI

It's issued by the #RBI in digital form.

It is the same as the fiat currency (read cash), and is exchangeable one-to-one with the fiat currency.

Meaning you can change/exchange it with cash or another #erupee

#erupee will be issued in the same denominations (10, 20, 50, 100 etc) as paper currency and coins.

It will be distributed through the intermediaries, that is banks.

For now, State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, Yes Bank and IDFC First Bank, are the only ones allowed to distribute.

Transactions will be through a digital wallet offered by the participating banks, and stored on mobile phones and devices.

A user will be able to withdraw digital tokens from banks in the same way she can currently withdraw physical cash.

Transactions can be both person to person (P2P) and person to merchant (P2M).

For P2M transactions (such as shopping), there will be QR codes at the merchant location.


It's not the same as #UPI because-

1) No daily and per-transaction spending limit.
2) Transfer of money is in real time. Online transactions are settled at the end of the day.

Why #erupee?

1) Reduce operational cost in managing cash.
2) Boost innovation in cross-border payment.
3) Quell concern over money laundering etc.

Currently, the #CBDC is running in a pilot mode in Mumbai, New Delhi, Bengaluru and Bhubaneswar.

Both, the number of cities & participating banks, will increase with time.

What do you think of #erupees? Do share your thoughts with me @inbrownstudy

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Cashing in...

For the uninitiated, here's a quick #explainer on #ChatGPT

Artificial Intelligence research company OpenAI on Wednesday announced #ChatGPT, a prototype dialogue-based AI chatbot.

It's capable of understanding natural language and responding in natural language.

This means that it can answer follow-up questions, admit its mistakes, challenge incorrect premises, and reject inappropriate requests.

#ChatGPT is based on GPT-3.5, a language model that uses deep learning to produce human-like text.

By using that, it can generate detailed text & can even come up with poems.

Another unique characteristic is memory. The bot can remember earlier comments in a conversation and recount them to the user.

So far, OpenAI has only opened up the bot for evaluation and beta testing but API access is expected to follow next year.

With API access, developers will be able to implement ChatGPT into their own software.

But there are limitations to it as well.

#ChatGPT is still prone to misinformation and biases, which is something that plagued previous versions of GPT as well.

The model can also give incorrect answers to, say, algebraic problems.

And due to the fact that it appears so confident in its super-detailed answers, people can easily be misled into believing those are true.

Thus, even in its initial stage #ChatGPT is making a lot of chatter about its revolutionary potential.

Some are even considering its advent as the death of #Google

You can try the bot for yourself over here-

https://chat.openai.com/auth/login

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AI AI, captain!

We all think about the #economy in numbers but a leading economist from #Oxford University wants us to think of it as a doughnut.

Here's why...

Professor Kate Raworth is an economist who likes to think of herself as "... a renegade economist focused on making economics fit for 21st century realities."

She argues that the single minded focus on #GDP & growth has led to catastrophic results for our planet. This needs to change.

She begins at the premise of 'rational man' of modern economics.
Acc to her, the idea of a rational man dominating the planet for their needs is wrong.

Today, the rational man must realise the deep complexity & interdependence of the planet & humans.

But mere ecological rationality isn't enough. We must be equally aware of the society as well.

Combined together (ecological + societal), the new model of growth looks a lot like a doughnut. Hence, the term #doughnut #economics.

The hole, in the middle of the doughnut, is the place where people don’t have enough resources to meet the essentials of life like food, water, shelter etc.

We want to leave nobody in that hole.

To achieve that we've been exploiting our natural resources. While the thought is noble, we often exceed the limits of our earth.

This outer limit of humanity’s resource use, forms the outer part of the doughnut.

Exceed that & we'll have unacceptable environmental degradation & potential tipping points in Earth systems.

This perfect harmony, in Prof Raworth's words, is "... an environmentally safe and socially just space in which humanity can thrive."

Such harmony is also reflected in Sustainable Development Goals adopted by the UN.

What do you think? Is this an interesting way to look at the economy? Do share your thoughts.

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A doughnut a day...

Amazon, Reliance, Udaan are all failing against the humble kirana shop.

Here are the reasons for it... 🧵

The goods that we see in our local shops are provided by distributors. These distributors buy directly from FMCG companies.

But why do these companies sell to middle men? Why not sell directly to the shops?

For the simple reason, logistics. It's impossible for FMCG companies to reach every kirana shop in the country.

Plus, most of these distributors have long-standing relations with kirana shops. Their good relation ensures co-dependence b/w them.

These distributors are present in every region of every state which makes this a very competitive market.

FMCG companies are also happy with this arrangement because-
1) They're not dependent on 1 dominant player &
2) Their products reach every corner of India

New age companies like Amazon, Udaan, Reliance wanted to disrupt this market because of its massive scale & potential.

They provided massive discounts & convenience of tech.

And... they were successful for a while. Udaan & Reliance made massive gains into the mkt.

But soon, they had to face pushback from the distributors. They protested across India & even FMCG companies supported them.

Why? Because these tech companies posed a threat to the market model that the FMCG companies have come to love.

Tech companies could finish competition, making the FMCG companies dependent on them.

Plus, these tech companies would also have the added power of data. This data can then be leveraged by tech companies to push their own products.

This was already happening to a certain extent. Amazon had its Vedaka brand, Reliance's Good life etc are just some examples.

So, both distributors & FMCG companies banded together.

But even kirana shops are not happy with these tech companies. Why? They're getting sweet discounts & ease of business, after all.

Well, it turns out nothing beats the warmth of human relations.

Acc to reports, kirana shop owners aren't happy with the few visits of salespeople from these tech companies. They're used to weekly visits by their distributors.

For ex- Reliance's JioMart's satisfaction levels reported by kirana stores have dropped from 98% in December 2020 to under 80% in July 2022.

To mend their ways, these tech companies will have to employ more ground workers. This is easier said than done as it massively increases their cost structure.

Another thorn for these tech companies is that many FMCG companies have started selling directly to kirana shops along with their distributor networks.

This way they're able to provide their products to every kind of shop owner.

What do you think these tech companies do? Do share your thoughts.

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David pushes back

In the Himalayas, people celebrate a major festival 11 days later than the rest of the world... #IncredibleIndia 🧵 🎆 🪔

In the northern part of India, in the hill state of #Uttarakhand, people celebrate #igas or budhi (old) #diwali 11 days after the rest of the country celebrates.

There are 2 beliefs behind it-

1) People of the hills got the news of Lord Ram's return from Lanka 11 days later in the hills. Hence, they celebrate diwali on that day.

2) During diwali, the local King of Tehri was embroiled in a war with the Kingdom of Tibet. Assuming the worst, people refrained from celebrating diwali.

11 days later, the army returned victorious. People were so happy that they celebrated diwali then.

People celebrate it by preparing 'bhailo'- a small bundle of dry wood of sesame, bhangjeera, hisar & pine. They're then tied with a special rope and lit on fire.

On the day of Igas, new grain is also filled in the 'kothar' (a wooden vessel for keeping grain).

At night, entire community gets together & worships their local God/Goddess.

This is followed by a performance of folk dance with the bhailo. Folk music is also played.

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