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1. Chiffres du jour d'#Euromomo, qui persiste et signe dans sa politique de "désinformation".
🧐
Combien vais-je encore avoir de "savants" qui vont s'esclaffer en proclamant qu'une surmortalité cumulée, ça ne peut pas diminuer ?🙄
…/…
twitter.com/felicittina/status/1616117786870419460
2. L'effet moisson devrait au moins commencer à se distinguer pour les plus de 85 ans.
Et bien non, toujours pas😩
Tendance linéaire très obstinée, avec un petit supplément…
3. Pas mieux pour les 45 à 84 ans.
Si quelqu'un arrive à localiser le moment où la techno ARNm a commencé à "sauver des millions de vie"👀
4. Chez les plus jeunes, 0-14 ans et 15-44 ans, la tendance est plutôt polynomiale mais, hélas, très mal orientée (coef. dominant positif).
Ce qui indique que, non seulement, les excès persistent mais qu'en plus, ils s'aggravent.
5. Source :
Ces courbes sont obtenues tout simplement en raccordant les courbes annuelles de surmortalité cumulée d'#euromomo.
Car, malheureusement, ce compteur ne peut être remis à zéro que par des sous-mortalités, pas par le 🎅…
euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/#excess-mortality
6. Cela fait des mois que les experts analystes d'Euromomo affichent l'avertissement ci-dessous.
Ils n'arrivent décidément pas à améliorer leur modèle afin d'afficher des tendances moins tragiques.
Il faut dire que…
7. …même en comparant à une projection 2015-2019 (régression linéaire, qui est une très bonne approximation) et en utilisant les chiffres peu discutables d'@HMDatabase (issus de l'état-civil), on n'arrive pas à trouver de données optimistes.
twitter.com/felicittina/status/1630508853556289536
8. Les britanniques en sont même arrivés à inclure 2021 et 2022 dans leur période de référence pour sortir des chiffres pas trop calamiteux.
Mais ils cherchent désespérement quelque chose de mieux, y compris 😲 les réseaux neuronaux …
🤖 🤖🤖
blog.ons.gov.uk/2023/02/10/how-do-we-measure-expected-and-excess-deaths/