1/ Are Lunatics selling their unlocked $LUNA airdrop?
Are REKT Lunatics more susceptible to the Sunk Cost Fallacy?
Mini 🧵
2/ Sunk Cost Fallacy is the idea that we are more likely to continue with a project/trade/endeavor based on our previous investment of time/money/effort- even if it's not the best decision at the time.
To simplify, many economists describe it as "Throwing good money after bad."
3/ There are examples of Sunk Costs in all facets of daily life.
Staying in an unhappy LT relationship
Buying the dip to average down on a shitcoin that won't regain ATHs
Going back to the same crack dealer for that FIRE even though the last 17 times he sold you soap shavings
4/ What does this have to do with Terra 2?
If you were airdropped $LUNA today, you have a decision to make (if you haven't already!)
For the majority of us, 25% of our airdrop is unlocked now, with the remaining 75% locked & vesting over the next 1-4 years.
5/ With the future of Terra 2 uncertain, what do we do with our unlocked LUNA airdrop?
1) Sell (recoup some capital)
2) HODL (it's written off money anyway)
6/ I won’t speculate on the future success (or not) of Terra 2. CT buffet can put together way better analysis.
I do have vested LUNA & therefore hope it succeeds (especially after being REKT). But hope is not a strategy. Hope is a belief, a faith in something.
7/ I haven't sold my airdropped $LUNA tokens yet. The rational part of me knows I should recoup some capital, BUT I do recognize my hope is a symptom of the Sunk Cost Fallacy. I've invested so much time, energy & money into $LUNA, I'm not willing to give up now.
8/ I polled the community today to see if Lunatics are selling or hodling their unlocked airdrop.
As of time of writing, it seems most Lunatics are pretty evenly divided with a few still undecided.
twitter.com/cryptoismyjam/status/1530684087966437377?s=20&t=AWmVbfIcwyM418wsrECoeg
9/ Members of the Terra community have been voicing their opinions all day...
An argument for selling:
Sell (recoup some capital)
twitter.com/ElonKwon/status/1530550586269175811?s=20&t=AWmVbfIcwyM418wsrECoeg
10/ An argument for holding:
HODL (it's written off money anyway)
twitter.com/tweeterazzis/status/1530669698232504320?s=20&t=AWmVbfIcwyM418wsrECoeg
11/ No one has a crystal ball (except maybe @marenaltman) so I don't think there is a right or wrong answer. I believe it comes down to risk tolerance, having a plan & keeping emotions at bay.
12/ What do YOU think? Are you selling, trading, HODLING or something in between?
And if all you remember from this thread is the crack reference then you, my Lunatic loon, my compulsive companion, my ADD acolyte, my fiendish friend - you are definitely GMI 😊