Luck is as important as any factor in product success.
But not all luck is created equal:
The legendary Marc Andreesen said it best.
There are 4 types of luck.
Type 1: Luck by Accident
Type 2: Luck from Hustling
Type 3: Luck from Preparation
Type 4: Luck from your Unique Character
These apply to products as well.
It's a PM's job to generate type 2-4 luck.
Type 1: Luck by Accident
Also known as blind luck.
This is luck that befalls a product purely by accident.
It usually has to do with founders and founding circumstances.
This is the type of luck we in product have the least ability to control.
Type 2: Luck from Hustling
Also known as Earned luck.
This is luck that a product earns because of the problems it solves.
The more features you ship, the more chances of success arise.
To generate this type of luck as a PM, never stop increasing your speed to ship.
Type 3: Luck from Preparation
Also known as Opportune luck.
The is luck a product team seizes because it is trained to spot it and ready to take advantage.
To generate this type of luck, prepare the product for primetime.
Then be sensitive to opportunities competitors miss.
Type 4: Luck from your Unique Character
Also known as Leveraged luck.
Extreme people get extreme results. Top 1% vs top 10% results are very different.
To generate this type of luck, be extremely good at solving a problem.
Customers seek you out. And luck becomes inevitable.
In summary:
1. Dumb luck is not the goal
2. Fortune favors the doer
3. Luck befalls those prepared to seize it
4. The tail-end of the curve gets different results
· Hustle
· Preparation
· Becoming Extremely Good
These are all things that are completely in our control as PMs.
Even if luck is not.
Start getting more lucky by not relying on dumb luck, and generating more type 2-4 luck.