🚨 Confirmed: Massive manipulation by the Fed

Imaginary jobs: There was never a strong labour market. This would have changed the interest rate hike decisions and midterm elections

The US government reported fake job numbers

🧵 /1

/2 Official confirmation: cooked job numbers

Many doubted the job reports, they were right: "In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500"

=> Error by 1.1M. Basically no jobs created over the summer

Link: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/surveys-and-data/benchmark-revisions/early-benchmark-2022-q2-report.pdf

/3 Now remember what the Fed did over the summer

I doubt they would have raised interest rates by 75bps if they'd been told that the labour market is actually tanking

Eg in June: We were told 293K jobs were created. In reality -57K

/4 The allegedly strong labour market was a key reason why dems won the midterms. #Biden was parading fictional numbers

The Fed used the fake numbers as their main reason for higher interest rates

We now have: stagflation -> recession + higher unemployment + high rates ⏰💥

🚨 Confirmed: Massive manipulation by the Fed

Contagion and second-order effects are far from over padawans

The Alameda - FTX - Binance triangle 🧵 1/14

2/13 Last year, over 90% of tokens from wallets associated with Alameda ended up at #FTX

Around 9% of all outflows from Alameda ended up at #Binance

3/13 Inflows to FTX show the scope of Alameda’s domination

In the period between November 2021 and November 2022, $49B in various tokens were transferred from #Alameda to #FTX

Inflows were increasing monthly and saw a jump end of Sep 2022 when over $4.2B were sent to FTX

4/13 Arkham Intelligence confirmed the inflow of around $4B worth of $FTT went into the #FTX

5/13 While most of the money going out of Alameda ended up at #FTX, it looks like the majority of it that went back into the trading firm came from #Binance

Since last November ~$25B worth of various altcoins and stablecoins went into Alameda


6/13 Out of the $25B, $7.1B came from #FTX wallets, while over $15.5B came from #Binance wallets 🤔

The inflows from Binance and FTX dwarf inflows from other exchanges

Graph shows flows into Alameda from November 2021 to November 2022 (Glassnode)

7/13 The trifecta of
- Alameda
- FTX and
- Binance is further evident when checking outflows from FTX

Since last November, it saw an almost equal split of outflows between #Binance and #Alameda

~38% of token outflows from #FTX went to Alameda, while 36% went to Binance wallets


8/13 Only 26% of the funds exiting #FTX went to wallets associated with other companies and exchanges

9/13 A deeper look at wallets associated with Alameda shows they kept a healthy balance of a basket of various tokens throughout 2021

On average, they held about $200M in $USDT, $DAI, $HUSD, $ETH and $WBTC


10/13 The November bull run pushed Alameda’s balances through the roof, culminating in January 2022 at $1.2B


11/13 The $LUNA collapse caused a massive dent in Alameda’s balances

It took around two months before the dent was shown, with the biggest drop felt in August and hasn’t managed to recover since and has seen its balances drop continually as it entered Q4

12/13 Those that don’t believe this was panic selling note that Alameda could have sold its reserves to return the funds back to FTX, their current balance sheet probs also make selling for profit highly unlikely

13/13 Data so far shows an undeniable bond between Alameda and FTX

=> The two deepened their ties through #Binance, which they might have used as an unsuspecting middleman in their year-long escapade

The Alameda - FTX - Binance triangle

So much noise by Bullard. Can someone pls show him the #PPI stats again… it went up MoM!

So what?
What producers pay rn will be passed down to consumers in the next few months -&gt; influences #CPI

#Inflation is most likely to plateau on a high level 

The longer the Fed waits to hike aggressively, the weaker will be the economic shape. So you either hike higher (already way behind the curve) and get a quick crashing recession and rebuild or face a slow painful economical death with a wounded economy and long #recession

Oh and show him JPMorgan and Wells Fargo reports. Banks are preparing themselves for a recession: „because more borrowers would default on loans, from credit cards to mortgages to commercial lines of credit“

PS: the retail sales are not strong. adjusted to inflation, real sales are actually slightly down

while the manufacturing is positive for June, the outlook for the next 6 months worsened

I know such tweets are unpopular during green candle times. but be careful padawans

remember: don’t fight the market. make use of the rally in time

some aspects make no sense like eg the Pepsi earning report. it’s actually super bad

market is highly irrational for now

Wasn’t Bullard skeptical the US slides into a #recession? The Fed team acts like a bunch of stock market shillers (always has been). 

how do you call two consecutive quarters with negative GDP growth again? 🤔 https://twitter.com/AtlantaFed/status/1547983651173908480

Irrational market reaction facing recession

Markets begin betting on a full percentage point rate increase. The US #CPI has a particularly unhealthy mix 

Most notably bond investors bet on a #recession and ultra hawkish Fed. Yield curve: in anticipation of it, 10y bonds consequently fell below 2y and the demand increase for 30y 

Unhealthy CPI mix

Perfect storm in the making is. pretty much all of my analyses are about to come true 🧘‍♂️

I wrote lengthy threads about shorting EU stocks based on Ray Dalio. Switch € to $ I said. but fake candles noobs see and greedy they become before they get rekt

https://twitter.com/yodaresearch/status/1546594803491684352?s=21&t=RPHvFAuwT36KhVwWVv5H0g

Analyses coming true

The irrationality of the #crypto market is always amazing

noobs think #CPI is not so bad bc it’s lagging. for starters, taming inflation in some areas is more difficult than in others (check the fine print of core inflation)

rental inflation will be the next big topic 🏘🏢 

Cost of shelter in the US increased 5.6% yoy in june = most since 1991

If you don’t get why this is important now or never heard about it, no worries, you’ll soon enough

btw wage gains.. yeah up nominal, but inflation adjusted down 3.6% = largest since 2007

gl paying your rent

hmm wrong. why this comment? rent #inflation in the US is out of control 🏢📈 

rents costing more than mortgages is normal? in some cases rents are moving higher than 100%

rent related costs = 1/3 of the CPI https://twitter.com/cotters_inc/status/1547361059383967744 

it’s an underreported fact, so most don’t get it. #CPI formula is cooked

#rentinflation actually is the second worst kind of inflation after food

higher rents lead to a stagnation effect in the economy

with increasing mortgage rates rental prices go higher so less ppl can afford -&gt; more demand for apartments -&gt; higher rents

Rent inflation expands

Uuf #CPI jumped to 9.1% in June, way above the predictions of 8.8%

Things get ugly
- swap markets start pricing in a 100bp hike with a 30% probability
- Fed is supposed to stay hawkish. combined with the strong dollar, a recession has become more likely (we’re in one already)
- € fell below $, in more than 2 decades
- #BTC oc down big now

Bitcoin pain incoming 
Treasury yields: When 10y up -&gt; #BTC  down

10-year treasury yield rate is up 7 basis points at 3.03% and 2-year jumped 11 basis points to 3.16% (being higher!)

Not good for #crypto. we have a almost perfect negative correlation with #Bitcoin  and the 10y

9.1% CPI

Hot weather is about to further crush energy supply in Europe ☀️

- France has 56 nuclear reactors. Output expected to be the lowest in 30y ☢️
- Germany: too mild breeze for max wind turbine output 🌬
- Italy, Spain: hydropower supply down (drought) 🏜 

Now combined with the weak € (compared to $), consumers are about to feel more pain in the euro area -&gt; further sentiment decline

How so? In short: Imports become more expensive -&gt; acceleration of inflation -&gt; higher prices, especially for energy and raw materials

Germany 🇩🇪 (4th richest country) now plans so-called #Wärmehallen (heated halls) for the winter for those who won’t be able to afford energy prices or have no gas. meanwhile oat milk is cheaper than actual milk… from cows

hmm to me like decades of failed policy it looks… 

Hot weather crushing EU energy supply

In Germany 16% of the population has started to skip regular meals due to #inflation… for lower-income groups it’s a staggering 32% 🍽

probably biggest prob, beer prices are also expected to increase by 30% 🍻🥹 zis iz not ze way

If gas would be rationed in winter, dairy producers are not in the emergency group. meaning a food shortage + further price explosion for stuff like milk, cheese, butter 🧈 …the basics

and no, you can’t just switch to eg oil. the producers would need completely new machineries

Germans skip meals due to inflation

On July 11th Nord Stream, the main gas pipeline supplying Europe with Russian gas, will be maintained for 10 days ⏰

If gas supply won’t come back or will be lower, EU's largest economy Germany will be in a deep recession and create severe economic ripple effects 

Will this effect the US?

Yes, no doubt. US remains EU’s largest trade and investment partner by far. EU invests in the US is around 8x it does in India + China combined

EU is in self destruction mode. You can’t help if you’re wrecked. In this scenario nobody except Russia wins

What German politicians say
- Chancellor Scholz: Comparison to 1960-70s inflation
- Econ minister Habeck: Lehman Brother’s-like contagion 

By now, Canada has even released a once sanctioned gas turbine (Habeck urged them) and the US now urges China to increase pressure on Russia

From a tactical point of view, Russia 🇷🇺 won’t cut gas completely

„How so blyat?“ -&gt; Game theory
If Putin would deliver even a further reduced rate, he keeps a powerful long-term bargaining chip over Europe and Germany in particular. Good leverage it is

On July 21 we’ll know