ERII has retired inside for a much needed G&T & the bunting is being taken down. Politics is back. So here are a few thoughts on what will be surely be known - if it happens - as the Jubilee coup.
🧵(tldr: there are a few reasons why Johnson could be in trouble).
Of course this thread might turn out to be redundant by this time tomorrow. However, given the rumours in today’s @sundaytimes that the no confidence letter threshold for Boris Johnson has been reached, it seems worth thinking how a no con vote might play out.
But first an important caveat. We don’t know anything at all. Anything in the papers, social media etc is a briefing from someone with a vested interested one way or another. We get into a game of bluff or double bluff.
Indeed, the epic capacity for Tory Party leadership game playing is indicated by another rumour doing the rounds: Johnson supporters are putting in letters, calculating that their man stands a better chance of winning before two potentially disastrous by-elections results.
This may or may not be true but it plays into a generally accepted view that Johnson will win a no con vote, at least if one were held at this moment in time. However, I would offer four reasons why I wouldn’t bet on Johnson.
These are:
1. This is the last jumping off point for MPs to paint this as a decision about ethics.
2. Other non-partygate factors.
3. What’s priced in.
4. Uncertainty about the future.
There are other factors I could mention beyond these (eg. It’s a secret ballot; history of Thatcher and May premierships suggests a technical win isn’t enough). But let’s focus on these 4 for now.
1. Let’s ask the question of why this is happening now? After all two by-elections are happening on 23rd June. Why not wait until then?
I would argue that to do so (or any point beyond that) prevents Tory MPs claiming that any move to oust Johnson is directly about his behaviour. It inevitably will be seen as being about electoral self-interest.
The implication of that is that MPs were fine with his behaviour, until it looked likely to cost them their jobs. Now imagine how that rationale plays out in a no con vote.
Conservative MPs are collectively being asked to cast a vote that, if it turns out in Johnson’s favour, will be portrayed by opponents as an party-wide endorsement of his behaviour.
2. Again let’s ask why this is happening now? Partygate was always going to be most dangerous to Johnson when combined with other factors.
So how many MPs have sent in letters because they disagree with changes to Ministerial Code or the Chancellor’s cost of living support package? Those sort of differences are fundamental and also create unusual cross-party coalitions in the anti-Johnson camp.
3. One of the Johnsonite’s favourite phrases is that their man’s failings are “priced in”. But what if they are priced in in a way that doesn’t help him? Specifically, what if Tory MPs are already assuming the 23rd June by-elections are lost and vote accordingly?
Put differently, Conservative MPs who might support Johnson must be playing a scenario in their heads where those seats are lost and they have just endorsed him.
4. Last weekend’s papers contained additional nasty surprises for Johnson. The Abba Party and stories about disagreements with staff at Chequers are still floating around. There is the ongoing investigation into whether he lied to Parliament.
How confident will MPs feel about tying their fate to a politician who is a continuing magnet for scandal? If they endorse him and the đź’© keeps hitting the fan, where does that leave them?
Final thoughts: The key point is that a no confidence vote is a very different question from either submitting a letter or making a public statement. The most striking thing about Tory MPs in recent months has been their silence.
The secret ballot means they can keep their personal silence but it also means they do actually have to answer the question of whether Boris Johnson is fit to be Tory Leader and PM - the exact question many of them have been skirting for months.
The collective outcome will be attributed to them all. Being seen to endorse a PM whose personal rating are completely toxic would be a very high risk strategy indeed.
Nick Anstead
@NickAnstead
Assoc Prof working on political communication & political ideas @MediaLSE. Also 🧵 nickanstead.
