2022 Election Night LIVE Coverage

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From our 2022 Los Angeles Elections Live Blog a 🧵 lamag.com/citythinkblog/live-blog-2022-los-angeles-elections/

✨Caruso’s Key to an Upset✨ ✍️: @JasonMcGahan #vote Since he launched his campaign for mayor, @RickCarusoLA has been hellbent on pulling off an upset over @KarenBassLA,

Bass was the instant frontrunner after she’d flirted with running for VP with @JoeBiden.

To actually pull this off, Caruso will need to do better with Latino voters than he did in the primary—and he already did very well, winning 34% of the Latino vote in June, far outpolling Bass (20%) and even finishing ahead of also-ran Kevin De León.

Prognosticators are keeping their eyes peeled for higher-than-average voter turnout in the Valley and the Harbor Region, outlying areas of LA w/ heavy concentrations of Latino voters where Caruso spent a lot of his time and millions from his war chest on his Latino voter outreach

Bellwether ‘burbs include the heart of ex-City Council Pres Nury Martinez’s former district, like Arleta, Van Nuys, Sun Valley, N. Hollywood, Lake Balboa, North Hills, & Panorama City, not to mention the blue-collar precincts of San Pedro & Wilmington.

Despite all the symbolism of Boyle Heights in Caruso campaign ads—and the hiring of a key de León campaigner to head up Latino outreach there—Bass has some support in the East Side barrio.

However, Caruso’s camp says the dismal early-voting turnout of 11% there—the fourth lowest in the city—isn’t worrisome to them. ✍️: @JasonMcGahan #vote lamag.com/citythinkblog/live-blog-2022-los-angeles-elections/

✨Is Sheriff Villanueva’s Campaign Toast?✨ ✍️: @JonRegardie #vote Elections can always deliver surprises, but at this point, Los Angeles County Sheriff Alex Villanueva’s bid for a second term looks to be cooked.

The embattled sheriff, who is facing too many lawsuits to list, garnered a dismal 30% of the vote in the primary—when he was the only one on the ballot with any name recognition. Now, he looks to lose to Long Beach Police Chief Robert Luna in an embarrassing landslide.

And that shock move of ordering the search of octogenarian County Supervisor Sheila Kuehl’s Santa Monica house back in September—presumably to shower his perceived enemy with bad press—did not provide much of a bounce for his campaign to hold onto his job. lamag.com/citythinkblog/raid-of-county-supervisors-home-is-abhorrent-on-brand-for-sheriff-alex-villanueva/

I’ll personally be stunned if he even cracks 45% of the vote today, and I won’t be surprised if he’s under 40% when all of the votes are counted. If past performance is an indicator, the first returns should arrive between 8:20-8:45 p.m. ✍️: @JonRegardie lamag.com/citythinkblog/live-blog-2022-los-angeles-elections/

✨Going Into Election Day, Race for Mayor Is a Toss-Up✨ ✍️: @kdolak #vote As of Tuesday morning, polling is giving no indication as to who will likely be the next to run LA, and the tight race between Rep. Karen Bass & real estate developer Rick Caruso has become even tighter.

Six-term U.S. Rep Bass would be the first woman and second Black person to be L.A.’s mayor.

Caruso has used over $100 million—essentially entirely from his own bank account and spent on a seemingly never-ending series of TV ads—to prevent this as he seeks to become L.A.’s first billionaire mall developer mayor.

An early October poll revealed a 15-point advantage for Bass over Caruso. The career politician led by only four points as voters headed to the polls.

“Who is going to be the 43rd mayor of Los Angeles?

Good question,” LAMag columnist Jon Regardie said today. “Recent polls have had the race tight, and while the demographics of Los Angeles make the city more likely to lean toward a lifelong Democrat like Bass,

the $107 million that Caruso has dropped. and the ground game his team has unleashed are the type of things that can explode expectations.

It’s a cliché, but it literally all comes down to who can turn out their base.” ✍️: @kdolak

Follow along for more election coverage. #vote lamag.com/citythinkblog/live-blog-2022-los-angeles-elections/