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Does the war on Ukraine solve the Transnistria conflict? By Vitalie Călugăreanu, Keno Verseck dw.com/de/l%C3%B6st-der-krieg-gegen-die-ukraine-den-transnistrien-konflikt/a-64350186

Russia's president has miscalculated with the war against Ukraine in many ways. Russian aggression could also lead to the end of the separatist Transnistria conflict in the Republic of Moldova.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin has miscalculated in many ways with the war against Ukraine. He has not been able to defeat the neighboring country so far - and probably won't.

He could not paralyze and divide the European Union and NATO - quite the contrary.

And: Contrary to his intention, he has achieved that in addition to Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova have also come much closer to European integration than they would ever have dared to hope for so far.

Further miscalculations could soon be added. One of the most important would be the solution of the so-called Transnistria conflict in the Republic of Moldova. In Transnistria, that narrow part of the Vltava on the left bank of the Dniester River, Russia first exercised in

1991/92 after the disintegration of the Soviet Union how to destabilize and divide an independent Union republic, to arm Kremlin-faithful separatists, unleash a war, create pseudo-state formations and later freeze the conflict for a long time.

Almost 2000 Russian soldiers are stationed in Transnistria, around 200 kilometers long and a maximum of 30 kilometers wide.

In the north, near the village of Cobasna, there is one of the largest weapons warehouses in Europe - around 20,000 tons of ammunition and equipment from old Russian stocks are stored here.

Although Russia officially committed itself in 1999 to withdraw troops and weapons within a few years, it never kept this promise.

Transnistria has been a "black hole" in Europe for over 30 years, according to a report of the European Parliament in 2002. Economically, the region kept itself afloat with money transfers from Moscow as well as smuggling, human trafficking and money laundering.

Ukraine also made its contribution to this: After 1992, the Ukrainian leadership elites, together with Russian economic officials, created a smuggling chain around Transnistria.

This economically strengthened the region and made it impossible for the Republic of Moldova to control the separatist region economically.

Gradually, however, the corrupt elites of the Republic of Moldova were also involved in the dirty machinations.

The transnistrian economy was dependent on the illegal movement of goods to and from Odessa and other Black Sea ports. The programs ran for over three decades.

The foundation stone was already laid in the 1990s, when the first "president" of the self-proclaimed separatist republic of Transnistria, Igor Smirnov, was received with great pomp by the then Ukrainian president.

Probably for good reason: The son-in-law of the then Ukrainian President Leonid Kutschma is said to have been the owner of one of the largest steel companies in Transnistria.

Over the years, other politicians in Kiev have also been tempted by the possibility of doing "business" with the separatists from Tiraspol behind the back of Chisinau.

Meanwhile, Kiev admits that it owes Moldova morally something because it tolerated the "black hole" of Transnistria for decades and even benefited from it.

The government-related press in Kiev devotes a lot of space to the analysis of this issue and suggests that a possible Russian defeat in the war against Ukraine should also mean the liquidation of pro-Russian Transnistria. While Ukrainian and Moldovan authorities turned a

blind eye to Transnistria's illegal practices for many years and benefited representatives of both states, writes Ukrainian journalist Sergei Sidorenko in the newspaper Evropejskaja Pravda, the Russian war against Ukraine has changed everything.

Ukraine has recognized that Transnistria poses a threat to national security. The question is how this problem can be solved now.

The beginning of the war on the 24th February 2022, the Ukrainian authorities arranged for the Transnistrian section of the Moldovan-Ukrainian border to be sealed off with tanks.

This has stopped smuggling, and the separatist regime in Tiraspol complains almost hysterically about the "economic blockade" and calls on Russia to save Transnistria.

So far unsuccessful - the goal of the separatist regime, the rapid occupation of Ukraine by the Russians and the annexation of Transnistria, failed due to the resistance of the Ukrainian army.

The Republic of Moldova stands by Ukraine in solidarity in this war, helps Ukrainian refugees and firmly believes that it has put itself on the right side of history.

However, the leadership in Chisinau believes that the Transnistria conflict should be resolved exclusively by peaceful means and in such a way that this does not affect the European course of the Republic of Moldova.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu has stated that Moldova must become a member of the EU by the end of this decade.

The bloody aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine has strengthened the Moldovan in its desire to avoid war at all costs.

This is the simplest answer to the idea widespread in Ukraine that the Ukrainian armed forces should help Moldova get rid of separatism and Russians in Transnistria.

There are no circumstances under which Chisinau would agree to the actions of the Ukrainian armed forces on its territory," writes Sidorenko, adding that Kiev has now also understood this.

Admittedly, the government in Chisinau has set a record budget for defense for 2023. Extensive investments are being made in securing the airspace. In addition, the Republic of Moldova receives armored Piranha vehicles from Germany.

Nevertheless, Moldovan governance not only wants to avoid a military confrontation with Transnistria, but is currently avoiding a scenario of economic pressure on the separatist regime in Tiraspol itself. "We are all in the same boat.

We should not unbalance it," said Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration Oleg Serebrian recently.

The background: The Republic of Moldova is still dependent on electricity supplies from the Cuciurgan power plant, which is located in Transnistria. This, in turn, is powered by Russian gas, which is supplied from Chisinau to Tiraspol.

What looks like an absurd reality, namely as if the Republic of Moldova supports and finances separatism, is still necessary - because without the electricity from Cuciurgan, darkness would prevail in the country.

But that could change soon. In the Republic of Moldova, work is being done at full speed on plans to make the country independent of electricity from Transnistria and gas from Russia.

If this is the case, Transnistria could simply fall into the lap of the Republic of Moldova - as a bankrupt entity. Because without the smuggling routes through Ukraine and the gas supplies from Chisinau, it would not be viable.