Luca Dellanna (@DellAnnaLuca)

A one-minute exercise to de-risk your life

22 days ago

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Companies & civilizations begin their decline when: – Theory becomes more important than practice – Preservation of the individuals becomes more important than preservation of the whole – Skin in the game becomes something to avoid rather than to celebrate

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This phenomenon is called probability matching. It’s an adaptation to supply and demand mechanics (such as, “if I always go to the most fruitful bush, predators will hunt me there”)

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15 Management quotes

15 MANAGEMENT QUOTES Clarity is not micromanagement, but lack of clarity is lack of management. People only voice a fraction of their doubts. The rest shows up later as indecisiveness, inefficiency, and ineffectiveness.

Employees love when their manager, while delegating a task, makes explicit what would be too little and what would be too much. Don’t aim to be clear enough so that you can be understood, but aim to be so clear that you cannot be misunderstood. That’s superclarity.

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The Reproducibility Crisis

“studies that replicate are cited at the same rate as studies that do not” [in psychology] "The majority (80%) of papers citing retracted research were published after the retraction date" [on covid] (continues below) t.co/bQI3T9sXt5 fantasticanachronism.com/2021/01/11/are-experts-real/

"Notorious fraud Brian Wansink racked up 2500 citations in 2020, two years after he was forced to resign"

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🧵 Thread

The role of a manager is often defined from a business point of view only. But what about THE ROLE OF A MANAGER FROM THE EMPLOYEES POINT OF VIEW? (thread) 1/ Managers talk so clearly & concretely not to be misunderstood. They don’t clarify misunderstandings but prevent them.

2/ Managers give early and frequent feedback. This helps workers know when they're going off track before it's too late. It thus prevents frustrating surprises or wasting efforts on actions that cannot be rewarded.

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Ergodicity and cooperation

A fascinating new paper on ergodicity. It's quite technical, so I took the freedom to explain here some of its findings and add on some of its applications. twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1528646949947285505?s=20&t=jgUMYPOPXHhNEb6UoMxAqA

The paper answers the question of "why do people cooperate by sharing resources"? Common answers include reciprocity ("I help you today so you help me tomorrow") or specialization ("I share my food and you share your tools").

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Counterfactuals

COUNTERFACTUALS Does Omicron having lower fatality rate than Delta mean that it's milder? Does a peak in cases during a mask mandate mean that masks do not work? No. Let me explain it using counterfactuals (short thread)

Example 1: Does Omicron having lower fatality rate than Delta mean it's milder? Counterfactual: if Omicron was as severe as Delta, would its fatality rate be lower? Answer: yes, bc of the below Conclusion: Omicron's lower FR doesn't imply it's milder twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1475125312484749312

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Why do mask mandates seem not to work?

WHY DO MASKS SEEM NOT TO WORK? Because contagion still happens where people don’t wear them (restaurants, households, etc) Does it mean masks are useless? No! (thread)

Let me explain. First of all, a single unmasked exposure can be enough to cat the virus. This means that if I wear the mask 95% of the time than go eat at an indoor restaurant while cases are high, and I catch the virus, it doesn’t mean masks don’t work.

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