December 18

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🇺🇦 Update🧵December 18th This thread is brought to you by the red nose of Russian Santa. Visit interactive map for more details and explanations: scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Operational%20Map%20Ukraine/nBT8ffpeGH

Yesterdays thread: twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1604168111459954688

Shelling locations reported by UA general staff today

Weather twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1604461249168826372

Ground temperature analysis by @davidhelms570 twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1604436241193336833

Kupyansk-Svatove The RU struggle for "lebensraum" continues in the Svatove area. The AFU repulsed an attack around Stel'makhivka. I belive this is an effort to try to keep the AFU away from the P-66 and attacking the last line of towns before Svatove.

Kreminna The AFU repulsed an attack around Serebryansʹke. Wargonzo reported RU attacks around Makiivka and Chervonopopivka. I asses the AFU are making incremental progress in this area. Smaller positional battles are taking place in preparation for better weather.

Siversk The AFU repulsed attacks in the direction of Verkhn'okam'yans'ke, Vesele and Vyimka. I believe attacks in the direction of Vesele and Vyimka comes from the Bilohorivka area. I consider the town a grey zone.

UA counter attack with HMMWV geolocated to the forest north of Bilohorivka by @EerikMatero twitter.com/markito0171/status/1604383248355938306

Bakhmut Continued attacks by Wagner in the Bakhmut area. The AFU repulsed attacks around eastern Bakhmut, Optyne and Klishchiivka. I believe RU forces will continue to advance in the areas surrounding Bakhmut at a pace of several meters per day.

I also believe the AFU will attempt a limited counter attack to reset RU positions. I do not believe Bakhmut is in danger until RU forces can threaten the supply to the city, which I don't believe they are close to doing.

Another thing regarding Bakhmut, even if RU forces enter the city, will have high ground west of the Bakhmutovka river. This is an area with large concrete buildings and industrial areas while the east side is mostly consists of small houses. (Image POV from north looking south)

The river it self might not be a huge obstacle, but if you consider the open space and the elevation differences, it might be hard for the RU dismounted infantry to cross it. It will be even harder to supply units actually managing to cross it.

Donetsk The AFU repulsed attacks around Pervomaiske, Nevelske and Krasnohorivka. Wargonzo reports "positional battles" in Velyka Novosilka and additional attacks around Mar'inka, Pobjeda and Novomykhailivka. No change.