Will @10KTFshop become a BILLION $ NFT EMPIRE?
Here's a breakdown of 10KTF and it's *MINT IN 5 HOURS*...
(1/31 ๐งต)
This thread covers:
1. 10KTF Overview
2. 10KTF Investment Analysis
3. Crate Mint Details
4. Crate Mint Analysis
5. Second Order Considerations
6. Summary & Conclusion
Let's dive in...
1.10KTF OVERVIEW
10KTF is a creative brand which launched PFP themed digital collectibles and may launch a combat game
10KTF has gone thru 3 stages:
1. PFP-themed digital clothing
2. Gucci digital clothing x PFPs
3. Passive staking (Back Alley) + game missions (Battle Town)
twitter.com/10KTFshop/status/1547702411828924427?s=20&t=k6QZWfGnGkiPw50CNAAFbQ
And the next two stages are:
4. Battle Town Level 2 (video below)
5. Otherside integration (just speculating ๐...)
twitter.com/10KTFshop/status/1555325622947180545?s=20&t=k6QZWfGnGkiPw50CNAAFbQ
Battle Town Lvl 2 is introducing new lvl 2 items (lvl 1 was PFP-themed clothing)
These items will be PFP customizable COMBAT GEAR like Kevlar Vests and even a FLAMETHROWER.
Every item has a "base power" for earning rewards and lvl 2 items have a higher avg base power than lvl 1
The ONLY way to obtain lvl 2 items atm is through minting a crate.
Every crate contains at least one lvl 2 combat item and may have other items including:
ยท Lvl 1 crafting
ยท IRL events
ยท Merch
* Only the lvl 2 combat gear is confirmed to be awarded in each crate
2. 10KTF INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
ARE 10KTF NFTs A GOOD BUY?!?
I'll preface with 2 things and then share my analysis:
1. The NFT market is shitty and most mints are struggling
2. Only buy if you actually vibe with the project... it's too elaborate to passively observe
2.1 Team
Led by the likes of @beeple & @guyoseary... creative talent, delivery, and resource access are unmatched.
The team doesn't have game dev background and they aren't hiring for it. Launching a game is exceptionally hard and they'll be reliant on external parties.
2.2 Community
A dedicated group of long-term holders who've made it through multiple cycles, airdrops, and increasing supply without bricking the floor.
10KTF has partnered with every major PFP which means the top NFT investors are all aware of the project and many are holders
2.3 Meme Power & Virality
The Wagmi-San meme and story are elaborate and well done. The complexity pushes people away... but it creates a more dedicated community.
I think weaponized PFPs โ> NFT game in @Otherside (w/ partnerships like Gucci) could be their viral catalyst ๐
2.4 Product(s)
10KTF's digital collectibles shop could be an important infrastructure piece for NFTs.
10KTF earns rev thru holders crafting items and they can control supply by closing the shop (one of the few projects that have rev and control supply)
The game quality is TBD.
2.5 Supply & Demand
The crate mint will substantially increase the already high supply. Existing holders will likely receive most of the new supply causing poor distribution
10KTF risks supply outpacing holder growth which will cause dilution (eg, Pixel Vault, Psychdelics Anon)
10KTF has rewarded holders handsomely so far with:
1. Materials & tools to create clothes
2. Tools were staked to earn $NTD (now $APE)
3. Gucci Grail mint passes
4. Battle Town missions (๐ $APE)
It makes one wonder how much juice there's left to squeeze for rewarding holders.
Short-term demand shouldn't expand much and will peak during the mint.
Demand could MOON if they successfully launch a game, IRL clothing, or unexpected dope stuff.
10KTF is the poster child for @OthersideMeta's open metaverse and you can bet they have some cool stuff cooking.
3. MINT DETAILS
Now, if you want to mint, there's an allowlist for:
1. Battle Town badges (ie, missions participated) โ> more crates
2. $APE coin holdings of 130+ โ> mint eligibility (# of crates TBD)
3. Wallets enlisted (ie, referred) by a 10KTF holder
and not everyone has the same deal ๐
Some groups receive perks like:
ยท OG role in Discord โ> free crate
ยท Completed all 8 Battle Town missions โ> free crate
ยท Holder for Jan 13 snapshot ("OG"), tool staking, and loadout from Missions โ> $NTD (85 $NTD = 1 $APE)
There are 2 minting stages:
1. Badge Holders: Aug 6 3p PT (live for 24 hrs)
2. APE holders & Enlistees: Aug 9 3p PT (live for 24 hrs)
* $APE holders must register and Enlistees must receive their referral by Aug 9 12p PT
* 10KTF holders can claim $APE TODAY at 3p PT
4. MINT ANALYSIS
ARE THE CRATES A GOOD BUY?!
Holding unrevealed projects through their reveal is a bad decision and this has both a crate reveal and PFP crafting "reveal."
If supply and holder mints are high (eg, 25K+ w/ 20k to holders), I'm likely not gonna mint and buy later
All 10KTF items will likely temporarily decline in value with such a significant supply influx and no new sustainable demand catalysts.
I still think 10KTF is a great medium-long term hold but I'm not keen on fighting supply and demand ๐คทโโ๏ธ
This is the kind of project I like to buy when no one is talking about it... as it'll bleed down short-term but should continue delivering over time.
I may buy blank crafted items as there have been benefits for items that match your PFP.
Mutant 20138 flamethrower anyone?
5. SECOND ORDER CONSIDERATIONS
Alright before wrapping up, there are a couple more fun things to consider...
5.1 Will $APE ๐๐?
The mint is in $APE and very few people have bought $APE in preparation for it.
We could see a similar dynamic as Otherdeeds, on a much smaller scale, with $APE pumping a bit leading up to the allowlist mint on Aug 9 (and dumping after if people can't mint).
The 10KTF $APE airdrop claims are coming today at 3p PT which may cause some slight sell pressure.
That 714k $APE airdrop will only be enough for 5495 crates so demand for $APE should exceed supply.
Overall, I don't think we see much $APE action caused by this mint.
5.2 Future Yuga NFT Collabs ๐?
There are hints of Mecha Apes rewards and Otherdeed allocation for 10KTF holders...
This could make sense as the 10KTF is the premier $APE project partnership which is a proof of concept for Yuga's mission of building an open project ecosystem.
twitter.com/10KTFshop/status/1552779682960924673?s=20&t=k6QZWfGnGkiPw50CNAAFbQ
5.3 How TF does the $ add up?
10KTF has earned ~$4M in sales + royalties and they're giving away ~$5M in $APE.
This (presumably) isn't part of a formal ecosystem fund grant as it wasn't voted on by $APE holders.
So... where is the $APE coming from ๐ค๐ค๐ค...
6. SUMMARY
ยท 10KTF is evolving from digital wearables to gaming
ยท 10KTF is promising but dilution and game execution are concerns
ยท Mint is on Aug 6 at 3p PT for badge holders & Aug 9 at 3p PT for $APE holders and Enlistees
ยท There will prob be better buying opportunities later
And lastly, these things will help 10KTF grow to a billion $ in NFT MCAP:
1. $APE & Otherside succeed (their platform needs to grow!)
2. Avatar-themed collectibles & luxury brand partnerships demand rises
3. Game launch succeeds and drives rev
I think they'll pull it off bc...
1. 10KTF's digital collectibles and partnership moat is a sustainable rev source for the business
2. Yuga will do EVERYTHING to make 10KTF thrive
3. Game could be a BIG bonus
Btw, holder rewards will prob come through new NFTs rewards > NFTs price increases (so, buy early+hodl)
Thank you to @lambolandlarry and @gregyounger for your feedback and the whole @10KTFshop & @midnightlabshq communities for jamming on this!
ps, you may also enjoy this thread on the Otherside.
twitter.com/liamherbst_/status/1548425185371402240?s=20&t=V6exAJLISq2MvlO53AE9Rg