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Now that we have validated my "proof", let me introduce you to a few concepts that enabled me to piece together this price projection.
ă»What is BMS?
ă»What is sell-side liquidity?
ă»How do we identify this on a chart?
What is BMS?
__
BMS stands for "Break in Market Structure", this is when price shifts below a swing low.
As soon as I see a BMS to the downside, I'll be looking for sell-side liquidity. But, what is sell-side liquidity?
What is sell-side liquidity?
__
When referring to sell-side liquidity, we refer to sell stops & stop losses (liquidation price).
When these orders are triggered, traders are forced into a short position (sell) and higher-level buyers are forced to sell their position.
Every trade requires a counter-party.
A buyer for every seller, and a seller for every buyer.
When the market orders are triggered (sell stops & stop losses) it offers an opportunity for SMART MONEY to buy in at a DISCOUNT.
But, how do we identify sell-side liquidity?
The Textbook Technical Analysis that you see plaguing Twitter suggests that one should place their stop losses below support.
Thus, based on the #Bitcoin Chart as seen below, it'll look like this.
Stop losses lie below this area.
Notice how they "validate" the retail perceived support by trading higher after hitting support.
With their beliefs of the market validated, retail now uses various systems to enter long.
Notice CT sentiment at this point - "technical analysts" were calling this the bottom.
Meanwhile...
I've been calling out lower prices.
It's worth noting here that nothing is ever *certain* and my calls were never *guaranteed* - it was only high probabilistic given the data presented & my deep understanding of liquidity & orderflow.
twitter.com/JiraiyaReal/status/1495371874821357570?s=20&t=mlU7IRXb6IlzhTjnTlgD7A
A few weeks later we observe that price trades through $27,800 - wiping out the stop losses of any leveraged longs.
Simultaneously, inducing traders to short the breakout.
This creates an opportunity for Smart Money to pair exits & shorts with a Long Position.
It's worth noting that these principles won't apply to every token in existence, I've only ever considered applying them to #Bitcoin & #Ethereum where Smart Money resides - not microcaps.
Utilising these principles, let's project where $ETH is likely going to trade to...
#Ethereum, Weekly.
__
It has traded beyond the swing low, and given a Bearish BMS.
Thus, I expect price to seek the sell-side liquidity that rests below the lows on the left - lying above is retail perceived 'support' and price will purge the lows, liquidating leveraged longs.
#Ethereum, H4.
__
This is the 4 Hour Chart of $ETH.
I've delineated the H4 Trading Range High & Low.
Based on this, I see a few possible scenarios.
Scenario 1: Price trades down and into $1600 from here.
Scenario 2:
__
Price will trade up in the Daily Bearish Orderblock, clearing the buy-side liquidity resting above, inducing people to take long positions on $ETH before cascading lower to $1600.
What is...
ă»Buy-side liquidity?
ă»Bearish Orderblock?
That's for another time!
This is the basics of how to understand the market from an Orderflow, Market Structure, Liquidity PoV.
There's much more for me to cover, this is merely a brief insight into how I made this call back in January with no bullshit indicators, clouds, moving averages, moons & stars.